Liverpool vs Manchester United Prediction and Stats | Premier League Gameweek 11
Premier League · Sunday 22 November 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Anfield, Liverpool · updated 2026-11-13
Liverpool welcome Manchester United to Anfield in Liverpool in Premier League Gameweek 11 action on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 16:30 UTC.
Liverpool have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 20% win rate. Manchester United have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 10% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Liverpool are narrow favourites at 53%, with the draw at 23% and Manchester United at 24%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Liverpool 1.98, Manchester United 1.27.
- Over 2.5 goals: 63% · both teams to score: 63%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Liverpool: form and key numbers
In style Liverpool keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.80 a match created, 1.43 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.0).
- Shots: 16.0 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 52.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
Manchester United: form and key numbers
In style Manchester United keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.76 a match created, 1.49 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.6).
- Shots: 19.3 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 55.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.85.
Liverpool vs Manchester United: season averages side by side
| Liverpool | Per match this season | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 1.80 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.76 |
| 1.43 | xG conceded | 1.49 |
| 16.0 | Shots | 19.3 |
| 4.7 | On target | 5.4 |
| 52.8 | Possession % | 55.0 |
| 40% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 5.3 | Corners | 6.3 |
| 2.6 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
| 6.90 | Average rating | 6.85 |
Players to watch
Liverpool
- Cody Gakpo LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 73 · Chance creator, Creator (top 5% of his position)
- Dominik Szoboszlai AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 67 · Creator, Chance creator (top 3% of his position)
Manchester United
- Kobbie Mainoo CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 73 · Dribbler, Ball circulator (top 1% of his position)
- Youri Tielemans CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 69 · Creator, Chance creator (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Bruno Fernandes
Bruno Fernandes, 32 · Manchester United · AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 74
Bruno Fernandes, 32, plays as an attacking midfielder for Manchester United in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in shots and key passes. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 74
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 71
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 68
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 3.44 / 90 | 97% |
| Key passes | 2.56 / 90 | 96% |
| Expected goals | 0.42 / 90 | 94% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.29 / 90 | 92% |
| Dispossessed | 0.78 / 90 | 91% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★½ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Bruno Fernandes is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Bruno Fernandes's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Liverpool vs Manchester United prediction
Manchester United should have more of the ball; Liverpool are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Manchester United work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.98 for Liverpool and 1.27 for Manchester United - with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 63%. Liverpool have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Manchester United
Liverpool vs Manchester United: what the numbers say
- 1. Liverpool unbeaten (win or draw) 76% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 63% by the model, 3.25 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.8 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 11.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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- Aston Villa vs Sunderland Saturday 21 November 2026
- AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest Saturday 21 November 2026
- Newcastle United vs Arsenal Saturday 21 November 2026
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Liverpool vs Manchester United: questions and answers
When is Liverpool vs Manchester United?
Liverpool vs Manchester United is on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 16:30 UTC, in Premier League Gameweek 11.
Where is Liverpool vs Manchester United played?
At Anfield, Liverpool, Liverpool's home ground.
Who will win Liverpool vs Manchester United?
Liverpool are the favourites: Liverpool 53%, draw 23%, Manchester United 24%. Our prediction is Liverpool 2-1 Manchester United.
Who is the player to watch in Liverpool vs Manchester United?
Bruno Fernandes of Manchester United: a shadow striker with a Moneyball Score of 74 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Liverpool vs Manchester United?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.