Chelsea vs Leeds United Prediction and Stats | Premier League Gameweek 11
Premier League · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Stamford Bridge, London · updated 2026-11-13
Chelsea welcome Leeds United to Stamford Bridge in London in Premier League Gameweek 11 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Chelsea have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 2.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 60% win rate. Leeds United have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 30% of them. Away from home they average 0.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Chelsea 41%, the draw 28%, Leeds United 31%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Chelsea 1.42, Leeds United 1.21.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Chelsea: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.39 a match created, 1.44 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.1).
- Shots: 13.6 a match, 5.7 on target.
- Possession: 49.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
Leeds United: form and key numbers
In style Leeds United play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.35 a match created, 1.26 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.5).
- Shots: 12.0 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 47.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Chelsea vs Leeds United: season averages side by side
| Chelsea | Per match this season | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 1.9 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 1.39 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.35 |
| 1.44 | xG conceded | 1.26 |
| 13.6 | Shots | 12.0 |
| 5.7 | On target | 3.7 |
| 49.8 | Possession % | 47.2 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 5.5 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 6.90 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Players to watch
Chelsea
- Wesley Fofana CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Reads the game, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Roméo Lavia DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 70 · Reads the game, Ball-winner (top 5% of his position)
Leeds United
- James Trafford GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 77 · Box defender, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
- Tarik Muharemović CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 67 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: João Pedro
João Pedro, 25 · Chelsea · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 76
João Pedro, 25, plays as a centre-forward for Chelsea in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in duels won and aerial duels won. Weakest in shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 76
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 70
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 61
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 7.77 / 90 | 93% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.80 / 90 | 91% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.59 / 90 | 81% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.20 xG/shot | 81% |
| Expected goals | 0.54 / 90 | 76% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Dominant in the air, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring.
- What João Pedro is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open João Pedro's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Chelsea vs Leeds United prediction
Chelsea should have more of the ball; Leeds United are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.42 for Chelsea and 1.21 for Leeds United - with over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 54%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Chelsea 1-1 Leeds United
Chelsea vs Leeds United: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 41%
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.63 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (49%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.0 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 9.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Premier League previews
- Manchester City vs Fulham Saturday 21 November 2026
- Tottenham Hotspur vs Ipswich Town Saturday 21 November 2026
- Coventry City vs Crystal Palace Saturday 21 November 2026
- Aston Villa vs Sunderland Saturday 21 November 2026
- AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest Saturday 21 November 2026
- Newcastle United vs Arsenal Saturday 21 November 2026
- Hull City vs Brighton & Hove Albion Sunday 22 November 2026
- Liverpool vs Manchester United Sunday 22 November 2026
Chelsea vs Leeds United: questions and answers
When is Chelsea vs Leeds United?
Chelsea vs Leeds United is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC, in Premier League Gameweek 11.
Where is Chelsea vs Leeds United played?
At Stamford Bridge, London, Chelsea's home ground.
Who will win Chelsea vs Leeds United?
It is close: Chelsea 41%, draw 28%, Leeds United 31%. Our prediction is Chelsea 1-1 Leeds United.
Who is the player to watch in Chelsea vs Leeds United?
João Pedro of Chelsea: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 76 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Chelsea vs Leeds United?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.