Aston Villa vs Sunderland Prediction and Stats | Premier League Gameweek 11
Premier League · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Villa Park, Birmingham · updated 2026-11-13
Aston Villa welcome Sunderland to Villa Park in Birmingham in Premier League Gameweek 11 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Aston Villa have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 30% of them. At home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 33% win rate. Sunderland have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 1.2 goals scored and 2.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Aston Villa are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 25% and Sunderland at 31%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Aston Villa 1.70, Sunderland 1.40.
- Over 2.5 goals: 60% · both teams to score: 62%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Aston Villa: form and key numbers
In style Aston Villa are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.37 a match created, 1.95 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 11.9 a match, 3.3 on target.
- Possession: 45.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
Sunderland: form and key numbers
In style Sunderland play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.58 a match created, 1.48 conceded (goals minus xG: -7.8).
- Shots: 12.2 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 47.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 30% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Aston Villa vs Sunderland: season averages side by side
| Aston Villa | Per match this season | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 0.8 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 1.37 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.58 |
| 1.95 | xG conceded | 1.48 |
| 11.9 | Shots | 12.2 |
| 3.3 | On target | 3.6 |
| 45.7 | Possession % | 47.7 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 30% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 3.4 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.72 | Average rating | 6.70 |
Players to watch
Aston Villa
- Zion Suzuki GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 79 · Box defender, Shot-stopper (top 6% of his position)
- Alysson RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 68 · Dribbler, Big-chance creator (top 8% of his position)
Sunderland
- Nordi Mukiele RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 72 · Reads the game, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Trai Hume RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 59 · Crosser, Duel winner (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Brian Brobbey
Brian Brobbey, 24 · Sunderland · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 70
Brian Brobbey, 24, plays as a centre-forward for Sunderland in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and aerial duels won. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 70
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 61
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.23 xG/shot | 96% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.03 / 90 | 86% |
| Expected goals | 0.57 / 90 | 82% |
| Duels won | 5.63 / 90 | 79% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.54 / 90 | 78% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Dominant in the air, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Brian Brobbey is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Brian Brobbey's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Aston Villa vs Sunderland prediction
Sunderland should have more of the ball; Aston Villa like to take players on; Sunderland are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.70 for Aston Villa and 1.40 for Sunderland - with over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams scoring at 62%. Aston Villa have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Aston Villa 2-1 Sunderland
Aston Villa vs Sunderland: what the numbers say
- 1. Aston Villa unbeaten (win or draw) 69% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 60% by the model, 3.09 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 62% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 8.0 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 corners or fewer 7.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Aston Villa vs Sunderland: questions and answers
When is Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Aston Villa vs Sunderland is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC, in Premier League Gameweek 11.
Where is Aston Villa vs Sunderland played?
At Villa Park, Birmingham, Aston Villa's home ground.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Aston Villa are the favourites: Aston Villa 44%, draw 25%, Sunderland 31%. Our prediction is Aston Villa 2-1 Sunderland.
Who is the player to watch in Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Brian Brobbey of Sunderland: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 70 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.