Brentford vs Everton Prediction and Stats | Premier League Gameweek 11
Premier League · Monday 23 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford · updated 2026-11-13
Brentford welcome Everton to Gtech Community Stadium in Brentford in Premier League Gameweek 11 action on Monday 23 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Brentford have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 30% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 100% win rate. Everton have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 40% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Brentford are narrow favourites at 46%, with the draw at 26% and Everton at 28%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Brentford 1.59, Everton 1.18.
- Over 2.5 goals: 52% · both teams to score: 56%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Brentford: form and key numbers
In style Brentford are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.58 a match created, 1.62 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.2).
- Shots: 13.1 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 43.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 30% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Everton: form and key numbers
In style Everton are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.34 a match created, 1.52 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.4).
- Shots: 14.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 47.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.93.
Brentford vs Everton: season averages side by side
| Brentford | Per match this season | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.2 |
| 1.1 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.58 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.34 |
| 1.62 | xG conceded | 1.52 |
| 13.1 | Shots | 14.0 |
| 3.6 | On target | 5.0 |
| 43.8 | Possession % | 47.0 |
| 30% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 3.9 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 6.93 |
Players to watch
Brentford
- Caoimhín Kelleher GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 66 · Long passer, Box defender (top 8% of his position)
- Igor Thiago CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 65 · Takes high-quality shots, Dominant in the air (top 3% of his position)
Everton
- James Tarkowski CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 70 · Duel winner, Reads the game (top 3% of his position)
- Jarrad Branthwaite CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 67 · Blocks shots, Dominant in the air (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Thierno Barry
Thierno Barry, 24 · Everton · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 79
Thierno Barry, 24, plays as a centre-forward for Everton in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and duels won. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 79
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 68
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 4.74 / 90 | 99% |
| Duels won | 7.37 / 90 | 96% |
| Shots | 3.79 / 90 | 91% |
| Expected goals | 0.69 / 90 | 90% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.67 / 90 | 89% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, Duel winner, High shot volume.
- What Thierno Barry is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Thierno Barry's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Brentford vs Everton prediction
Everton should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.59 for Brentford and 1.18 for Everton - with over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 56%. Brentford have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Brentford 2-1 Everton
Brentford vs Everton: what the numbers say
- 1. Brentford unbeaten (win or draw) 72% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.76 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (52%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 7.1 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 corners or fewer 8.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Brentford vs Everton: questions and answers
When is Brentford vs Everton?
Brentford vs Everton is on Monday 23 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Premier League Gameweek 11.
Where is Brentford vs Everton played?
At Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford, Brentford's home ground.
Who will win Brentford vs Everton?
Brentford are the favourites: Brentford 46%, draw 26%, Everton 28%. Our prediction is Brentford 2-1 Everton.
Who is the player to watch in Brentford vs Everton?
Thierno Barry of Everton: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 79 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Brentford vs Everton?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.