Sassuolo vs Genoa Prediction and Stats | Serie A Gameweek 12
Serie A · Sunday 22 November 2026 · 14:00 UTC · MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia · updated 2026-11-13
Sassuolo welcome Genoa to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Reggio Emilia in Serie A Gameweek 12 action on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Sassuolo have played 11 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 2.6 goals a game and winning 18% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 100% win rate. Genoa have played 11 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 36% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Sassuolo 37%, the draw 27%, Genoa 36%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Sassuolo 1.42, Genoa 1.40.
- Over 2.5 goals: 53% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Sassuolo: form and key numbers
In style Sassuolo are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.27 a match created, 1.94 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.1).
- Shots: 12.6 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 46.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 82% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Genoa: form and key numbers
In style Genoa are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 0.98 a match created, 1.30 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 11.7 a match, 3.1 on target.
- Possession: 43.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 18% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 55% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Sassuolo vs Genoa: season averages side by side
| Sassuolo | Per match this season | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 2.6 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.27 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.98 |
| 1.94 | xG conceded | 1.30 |
| 12.6 | Shots | 11.7 |
| 4.5 | On target | 3.1 |
| 46.6 | Possession % | 43.4 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 18% |
| 82% | Both teams scored % | 55% |
| 3.8 | Corners | 4.1 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.70 | Average rating | 6.77 |
Players to watch
Sassuolo
- Nemanja Matić DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 62 · Hard to dribble past, Disciplined (top 6% of his position)
- Darryl Bakola CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 62 · Dribbler, Ball-winner (top 10% of his position)
Genoa
- Leo Østigård CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 64 · Blocks shots, Box defender (top 1% of his position)
- Stephan El Shaarawy LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 57 · Press-resistant, Big-chance creator (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Junior Messias
Junior Messias, 35 · Genoa · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 65
Junior Messias, 35, plays as a winger for Genoa in Serie A. Strongest for his role in fouls won and successful dribbles. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 65
- RM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 62
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 62
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls won | 2.95 / 90 | 94% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.64 / 90 | 83% |
| Key passes | 1.86 / 90 | 65% |
| Shots | 2.64 / 90 | 65% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.21 / 90 | 60% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★½ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★½ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Draws fouls, Dribbler.
- What Junior Messias is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Junior Messias's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Sassuolo vs Genoa prediction
Sassuolo should have more of the ball. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.42 for Sassuolo and 1.40 for Genoa - with over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams scoring at 58%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Sassuolo 1-1 Genoa
Sassuolo vs Genoa: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 37%
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.82 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (53%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.5 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 corners or fewer 7.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Serie A previews
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- Napoli vs Torino Saturday 21 November 2026
- Juventus vs Venezia Sunday 22 November 2026
- Bologna vs Udinese Sunday 22 November 2026
- AC Milan vs Frosinone Sunday 22 November 2026
- Atalanta vs Inter Sunday 22 November 2026
Sassuolo vs Genoa: questions and answers
When is Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Sassuolo vs Genoa is on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 12.
Where is Sassuolo vs Genoa played?
At MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia, Sassuolo's home ground.
Who will win Sassuolo vs Genoa?
It is close: Sassuolo 37%, draw 27%, Genoa 36%. Our prediction is Sassuolo 1-1 Genoa.
Who is the player to watch in Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Junior Messias of Genoa: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 65 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.