Atalanta vs Inter Prediction and Stats | Serie A Gameweek 12
Serie A · Sunday 22 November 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo · updated 2026-11-13
Atalanta welcome Inter to Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo in Serie A Gameweek 12 action on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Atalanta have played 11 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 36% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 6 matches, with a 75% win rate. Inter have played 11 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 82% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Inter are clear favourites at 60%, with the draw at 20% and Atalanta at 20%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Atalanta 1.32, Inter 2.36.
- Over 2.5 goals: 71% · both teams to score: 67%.
- Most likely score: 1–3 (7%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Atalanta: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.60 a match created, 1.82 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.6).
- Shots: 14.4 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 48.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 18% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 64% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Inter: form and key numbers
In style Inter keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.62 a match created, 0.92 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.8).
- Shots: 21.3 a match, 6.9 on target.
- Possession: 60.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 36% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 64% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.06.
Atalanta vs Inter: season averages side by side
| Atalanta | Per match this season | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 2.5 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 1.60 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.62 |
| 1.82 | xG conceded | 0.92 |
| 14.4 | Shots | 21.3 |
| 5.4 | On target | 6.9 |
| 48.8 | Possession % | 60.6 |
| 18% | Clean sheets % | 36% |
| 64% | Both teams scored % | 64% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 6.1 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.83 | Average rating | 7.06 |
Players to watch
Atalanta
- Relja Obrić CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 69 · Blocks shots, Box defender (top 7% of his position)
- Jonathan Rowe LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 67 · Draws fouls, High shot volume (top 4% of his position)
Inter
- Nicolò Barella CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 72 · Creator, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
- Lautaro Martínez CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 71 · Gets into scoring positions, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Nikola Krstović
Nikola Krstović, 26 · Atalanta · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 71
Nikola Krstović, 26, plays as a centre-forward for Atalanta in Serie A. Strongest for his role in shots and goals, luck taken out. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 71
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 64
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 4.18 / 90 | 89% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.76 / 90 | 88% |
| Expected goals | 0.72 / 90 | 87% |
| Aerial duels won | 2.66 / 90 | 72% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.17 xG/shot | 70% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Nikola Krstović is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Nikola Krstović's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Atalanta vs Inter prediction
Inter should have more of the ball, with Atalanta likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Inter work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals - 1.32 for Atalanta and 2.36 for Inter - with over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams scoring at 67%. Inter have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Atalanta 1-3 Inter
Atalanta vs Inter: what the numbers say
- 1. Inter win, the likeliest result 60% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 4 or more goals 50% by the model, 3.68 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 67% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.4 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 10.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Serie A previews
- Lazio vs Lecce Saturday 21 November 2026
- Como vs Cagliari Saturday 21 November 2026
- Parma vs Roma Saturday 21 November 2026
- Napoli vs Torino Saturday 21 November 2026
- Juventus vs Venezia Sunday 22 November 2026
- Sassuolo vs Genoa Sunday 22 November 2026
- Bologna vs Udinese Sunday 22 November 2026
- AC Milan vs Frosinone Sunday 22 November 2026
Atalanta vs Inter: questions and answers
When is Atalanta vs Inter?
Atalanta vs Inter is on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 12.
Where is Atalanta vs Inter played?
At Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo, Atalanta's home ground.
Who will win Atalanta vs Inter?
Inter are the favourites: Atalanta 20%, draw 20%, Inter 60%. Our prediction is Atalanta 1-3 Inter.
Who is the player to watch in Atalanta vs Inter?
Nikola Krstović of Atalanta: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 71 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Atalanta vs Inter?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 71%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.