AC Milan vs Frosinone Prediction and Stats | Serie A Gameweek 12
Serie A · Sunday 22 November 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano · updated 2026-11-13
AC Milan welcome Frosinone to Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano in Serie A Gameweek 12 action on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
AC Milan have played 11 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 2.1 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 64% of them. At home they average 2.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 57% win rate. Frosinone have played 11 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 55% of them. Away from home they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 17% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, AC Milan are narrow favourites at 53%, with the draw at 22% and Frosinone at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: AC Milan 2.09, Frosinone 1.41.
- Over 2.5 goals: 68% · both teams to score: 67%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
AC Milan: form and key numbers
In style AC Milan keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.55 a match created, 1.12 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.9).
- Shots: 11.4 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 59.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 27% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 73% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
Frosinone: form and key numbers
In style Frosinone cross a lot, are strong in the air, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.90 a match created, 2.11 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.1).
- Shots: 20.1 a match, 6.8 on target.
- Possession: 47.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 27% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 45% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.97.
AC Milan vs Frosinone: season averages side by side
| AC Milan | Per match this season | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 2.1 | Goals scored | 2.2 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.55 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.90 |
| 1.12 | xG conceded | 2.11 |
| 11.4 | Shots | 20.1 |
| 4.5 | On target | 6.8 |
| 59.0 | Possession % | 47.5 |
| 27% | Clean sheets % | 27% |
| 73% | Both teams scored % | 45% |
| 2.7 | Corners | 7.0 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.90 | Average rating | 6.97 |
Players to watch
AC Milan
- Davide Bartesaghi LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 74 · Chance creator, Ball-winner (top 12% of his position)
- Luka Modrić CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 69 · Long passer, Ball circulator (top 1% of his position)
Frosinone
- Lorenzo Palmisani GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 68 · Dominant in the air, Shot-stopper (top 12% of his position)
- Antonio Raimondo CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 63 · Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring, Rarely wastes a big chance (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Giorgi Kvernadze
Giorgi Kvernadze, 23 · Frosinone · LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 68
Giorgi Kvernadze, 23, plays as a winger for Frosinone in Serie A. Strongest for his role in shots and key passes. Weakest in accurate crosses. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 68
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 3.30 / 90 | 91% |
| Key passes | 2.60 / 90 | 90% |
| Successful dribbles | 3.00 / 90 | 90% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.26 / 90 | 77% |
| Expected goals | 0.27 / 90 | 73% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Chance creator, Dribbler.
- What Giorgi Kvernadze is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Giorgi Kvernadze's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
AC Milan vs Frosinone prediction
AC Milan should have more of the ball, with Frosinone likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; AC Milan work the ball wide and cross; Frosinone are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 2.09 for AC Milan and 1.41 for Frosinone - with over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams scoring at 67%. AC Milan have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: AC Milan 2-1 Frosinone
AC Milan vs Frosinone: what the numbers say
- 1. AC Milan unbeaten (win or draw) 75% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 68% by the model, 3.49 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 67% by the model
- 4. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.7 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Serie A previews
- Lazio vs Lecce Saturday 21 November 2026
- Como vs Cagliari Saturday 21 November 2026
- Parma vs Roma Saturday 21 November 2026
- Napoli vs Torino Saturday 21 November 2026
- Juventus vs Venezia Sunday 22 November 2026
- Sassuolo vs Genoa Sunday 22 November 2026
- Bologna vs Udinese Sunday 22 November 2026
- Atalanta vs Inter Sunday 22 November 2026
AC Milan vs Frosinone: questions and answers
When is AC Milan vs Frosinone?
AC Milan vs Frosinone is on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 12.
Where is AC Milan vs Frosinone played?
At Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano, AC Milan's home ground.
Who will win AC Milan vs Frosinone?
AC Milan are the favourites: AC Milan 53%, draw 22%, Frosinone 25%. Our prediction is AC Milan 2-1 Frosinone.
Who is the player to watch in AC Milan vs Frosinone?
Giorgi Kvernadze of Frosinone: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 68 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in AC Milan vs Frosinone?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.