Parma vs Roma Prediction and Stats | Serie A Gameweek 12
Serie A · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma · updated 2026-11-13
Parma welcome Roma to Stadio Ennio Tardini in Parma in Serie A Gameweek 12 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Parma have played 11 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 18% of them. At home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 6 matches, with a 50% win rate. Roma have played 11 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 2.8 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 73% of them. Away from home they average 2.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 38% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Roma are clear favourites at 68%, with the draw at 19% and Parma at 13%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Parma 0.90, Roma 2.28.
- Over 2.5 goals: 62% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Parma: form and key numbers
In style Parma are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 0.94 a match created, 1.94 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.4).
- Shots: 10.0 a match, 3.2 on target.
- Possession: 40.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 18% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 45% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
Roma: form and key numbers
In style Roma keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.32 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.5).
- Shots: 19.4 a match, 6.5 on target.
- Possession: 57.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 55% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 45% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.07.
Parma vs Roma: season averages side by side
| Parma | Per match this season | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 2.8 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 0.9 |
| 0.94 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.32 |
| 1.94 | xG conceded | 1.23 |
| 10.0 | Shots | 19.4 |
| 3.2 | On target | 6.5 |
| 40.1 | Possession % | 57.2 |
| 18% | Clean sheets % | 55% |
| 45% | Both teams scored % | 45% |
| 3.3 | Corners | 6.4 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.72 | Average rating | 7.07 |
Players to watch
Parma
- Giovanni Daffara GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 63 · Shot-stopper, Long passer (top 3% of his position)
- Edoardo Corvi GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Shot-stopper, Dominant in the air (top 30% of his position)
Roma
- Matías Soulé RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 80 · High shot volume, Crosser (top 7% of his position)
- Manu Koné CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 78 · Secure passer, Chance creator (top 11% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Paulo Dybala
Paulo Dybala, 32 · Roma · SS · Link-up forward · Moneyball Score 83
Paulo Dybala, 32, plays as a second striker for Roma in Serie A. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every second striker in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average second striker, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- SS · Second striker Natural, 83
- LW · Winger Natural, 80
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 77
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 4.54 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.65 / 90 | 97% |
| Assists, luck taken out | 0.66 / 90 | 97% |
| Fouls won | 1.27 / 90 | 91% |
| Expected goals | 0.35 / 90 | 85% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Creator Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, Sets up goals from real chances.
- What Paulo Dybala is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Paulo Dybala's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Parma vs Roma prediction
Roma should have more of the ball, with Parma likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Parma go long and direct; Roma work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 0.90 for Parma and 2.28 for Roma - with over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 54%. Roma have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Parma 1-2 Roma
Parma vs Roma: what the numbers say
- 1. Roma win, the likeliest result 68% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 62% by the model, 3.18 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.1 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 9.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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- Sassuolo vs Genoa Sunday 22 November 2026
- Bologna vs Udinese Sunday 22 November 2026
- AC Milan vs Frosinone Sunday 22 November 2026
- Atalanta vs Inter Sunday 22 November 2026
Parma vs Roma: questions and answers
When is Parma vs Roma?
Parma vs Roma is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 12.
Where is Parma vs Roma played?
At Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma, Parma's home ground.
Who will win Parma vs Roma?
Roma are the favourites: Parma 13%, draw 19%, Roma 68%. Our prediction is Parma 1-2 Roma.
Who is the player to watch in Parma vs Roma?
Paulo Dybala of Roma: a link-up forward with a Moneyball Score of 83 against every second striker in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Parma vs Roma?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.