Portugal vs Denmark Prediction and Stats
UEFA Nations League A · Sunday 15 November 2026 · updated 2026-11-13
Portugal welcome Denmark in UEFA Nations League A action on Sunday 15 November 2026.
Portugal have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. Denmark have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the pre-match consensus, Portugal are clear favourites at 62%, with the draw at 22% and Denmark at 16%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 3 goals: 48%.
Portugal vs Denmark: season averages side by side
| Portugal | Per match | Denmark |
|---|---|---|
| 2.67 | Expected goals (xG) | 3.09 |
| 1.12 | xG conceded | 1.10 |
| 2.32 | Goals | 2.88 |
| 15.7 | Shots | 17.6 |
| 12.3 | Tackles | 19.5 |
| 7.8 | Fouls | 10.5 |
| 1.2 | Yellow cards | 0.6 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 30 and 10 measured matches.
Portugal vs Denmark prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.49 for Portugal and 1.23 for Denmark - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Portugal have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Portugal 2-1 Denmark
Portugal vs Denmark: what the numbers say
- 1. Portugal win, the likeliest result 62% on the pre-match consensus
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More UEFA Nations League A previews
- Turkey vs Belgium Friday 13 November 2026
- Italy vs France Friday 13 November 2026
- Czechia vs Spain Friday 13 November 2026
- England vs Croatia Friday 13 November 2026
- Netherlands vs Greece Saturday 14 November 2026
- Serbia vs Germany Saturday 14 November 2026
Portugal vs Denmark: questions and answers
When is Portugal vs Denmark?
Portugal vs Denmark is on Sunday 15 November 2026, in UEFA Nations League A.
Who will win Portugal vs Denmark?
Portugal are the favourites: Portugal 62%, draw 22%, Denmark 16%. Our prediction is Portugal 2-1 Denmark.
How many goals will there be in Portugal vs Denmark?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.