Italy vs France Prediction and Stats
UEFA Nations League A · Friday 13 November 2026 · updated 2026-11-13
Italy welcome France in UEFA Nations League A action on Friday 13 November 2026.
Italy have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. France have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the pre-match consensus, France are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 26% and Italy at 24%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 2.75 goals: 50%.
Italy vs France: season averages side by side
| Italy | Per match | France |
|---|---|---|
| 2.94 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.50 |
| 1.39 | xG conceded | 1.00 |
| 2.13 | Goals | 2.48 |
| 20.0 | Shots | 13.8 |
| 13.0 | Tackles | 13.7 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 10.4 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 8 and 36 measured matches.
Italy vs France prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.49 for Italy and 1.23 for France - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. France have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Italy 1-2 France
Italy vs France: what the numbers say
- 1. France unbeaten (win or draw) 76% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More UEFA Nations League A previews
- Turkey vs Belgium Friday 13 November 2026
- Czechia vs Spain Friday 13 November 2026
- England vs Croatia Friday 13 November 2026
- Netherlands vs Greece Saturday 14 November 2026
- Serbia vs Germany Saturday 14 November 2026
- Norway vs Wales Sunday 15 November 2026
Italy vs France: questions and answers
When is Italy vs France?
Italy vs France is on Friday 13 November 2026, in UEFA Nations League A.
Who will win Italy vs France?
France are the favourites: Italy 24%, draw 26%, France 50%. Our prediction is Italy 1-2 France.
How many goals will there be in Italy vs France?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.