Turkey vs Belgium Prediction and Stats
UEFA Nations League A · Friday 13 November 2026 · updated 2026-11-13
Turkey welcome Belgium in UEFA Nations League A action on Friday 13 November 2026.
Turkey have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. Belgium have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the pre-match consensus, Belgium are narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 26% and Turkey at 29%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 3.25 goals: 47%.
Turkey vs Belgium: season averages side by side
| Turkey | Per match | Belgium |
|---|---|---|
| 1.90 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.37 |
| 1.66 | xG conceded | 1.03 |
| 2.07 | Goals | 2.89 |
| 14.9 | Shots | 15.0 |
| 17.1 | Tackles | 13.3 |
| 10.6 | Fouls | 10.9 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 18 and 40 measured matches.
Turkey vs Belgium prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.49 for Turkey and 1.23 for Belgium - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Belgium have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Turkey 1-2 Belgium
Turkey vs Belgium: what the numbers say
- 1. Belgium unbeaten (win or draw) 71% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More UEFA Nations League A previews
- Italy vs France Friday 13 November 2026
- Czechia vs Spain Friday 13 November 2026
- England vs Croatia Friday 13 November 2026
- Netherlands vs Greece Saturday 14 November 2026
- Serbia vs Germany Saturday 14 November 2026
- Norway vs Wales Sunday 15 November 2026
Turkey vs Belgium: questions and answers
When is Turkey vs Belgium?
Turkey vs Belgium is on Friday 13 November 2026, in UEFA Nations League A.
Who will win Turkey vs Belgium?
Belgium are the favourites: Turkey 29%, draw 26%, Belgium 45%. Our prediction is Turkey 1-2 Belgium.
How many goals will there be in Turkey vs Belgium?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.