Netherlands vs Greece Prediction and Stats
UEFA Nations League A · Saturday 14 November 2026 · updated 2026-11-13
Netherlands welcome Greece in UEFA Nations League A action on Saturday 14 November 2026.
Netherlands have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. Greece have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the pre-match consensus, Netherlands are clear favourites at 63%, with the draw at 21% and Greece at 16%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 3 goals: 50%.
Netherlands vs Greece: season averages side by side
| Netherlands | Per match | Greece |
|---|---|---|
| 2.23 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.80 |
| 0.77 | xG conceded | 1.41 |
| 2.80 | Goals | 1.31 |
| 12.6 | Shots | 14.0 |
| 11.8 | Tackles | 16.0 |
| 10.3 | Fouls | 12.9 |
| 0.6 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 32 and 24 measured matches.
Netherlands vs Greece prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.49 for Netherlands and 1.23 for Greece - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Netherlands have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Netherlands 2-1 Greece
Netherlands vs Greece: what the numbers say
- 1. Netherlands win, the likeliest result 63% on the pre-match consensus
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More UEFA Nations League A previews
- Turkey vs Belgium Friday 13 November 2026
- Italy vs France Friday 13 November 2026
- Czechia vs Spain Friday 13 November 2026
- England vs Croatia Friday 13 November 2026
- Serbia vs Germany Saturday 14 November 2026
- Norway vs Wales Sunday 15 November 2026
Netherlands vs Greece: questions and answers
When is Netherlands vs Greece?
Netherlands vs Greece is on Saturday 14 November 2026, in UEFA Nations League A.
Who will win Netherlands vs Greece?
Netherlands are the favourites: Netherlands 63%, draw 21%, Greece 16%. Our prediction is Netherlands 2-1 Greece.
How many goals will there be in Netherlands vs Greece?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.