Monza vs Fiorentina Prediction and Stats | Serie A Gameweek 12
Serie A · Monday 23 November 2026 · 19:45 UTC · U-Power Stadium, Monza · updated 2026-11-13
Monza welcome Fiorentina to U-Power Stadium in Monza in Serie A Gameweek 12 action on Monday 23 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Monza have played 11 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 18% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 100% win rate. Fiorentina have played 11 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 18% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Monza are narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 22% and Fiorentina at 33%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Monza 2.01, Fiorentina 1.71.
- Over 2.5 goals: 72% · both teams to score: 71%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (6%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Monza: form and key numbers
In style Monza are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.51 a match created, 1.55 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.4).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 5.5 on target.
- Possession: 44.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 9% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 82% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Fiorentina: form and key numbers
In style Fiorentina are happy without the ball, take players on, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.72 a match created, 1.63 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.9).
- Shots: 16.9 a match, 5.1 on target.
- Possession: 45.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 82% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Monza vs Fiorentina: season averages side by side
| Monza | Per match this season | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 2.3 | Goals conceded | 2.3 |
| 1.51 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.72 |
| 1.55 | xG conceded | 1.63 |
| 13.4 | Shots | 16.9 |
| 5.5 | On target | 5.1 |
| 44.2 | Possession % | 45.2 |
| 9% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 82% | Both teams scored % | 82% |
| 4.1 | Corners | 4.9 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.70 | Average rating | 6.73 |
Players to watch
Monza
- Gustavo Varela CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 59 · Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring, Accurate shooter (top 19% of his position)
- Adam Bakoune RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 57 · Crosser, Reads the game (top 14% of his position)
Fiorentina
- Christ Inao Oulaï CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 62 · Ball-winner, Reads the game (top 13% of his position)
- Nicolò Fagioli CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 60 · Dribbler, Ball circulator (top 11% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Franco Mastantuono
Franco Mastantuono, 19 · Fiorentina · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 65
Franco Mastantuono, 19, plays as a winger for Fiorentina in Serie A. Strongest for his role in shots and expected goals. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 65
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 59
- RM · Wide midfielder Competent, 39
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 4.50 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected goals | 0.39 / 90 | 92% |
| Fouls won | 2.35 / 90 | 90% |
| Key passes | 2.15 / 90 | 79% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.25 / 90 | 78% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions, Draws fouls.
- What Franco Mastantuono is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Franco Mastantuono's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Monza vs Fiorentina prediction
Fiorentina should have more of the ball; Fiorentina like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals - 2.01 for Monza and 1.71 for Fiorentina - with over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams scoring at 71%. Monza have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Monza 3-1 Fiorentina
Monza vs Fiorentina: what the numbers say
- 1. Monza unbeaten (win or draw) 67% between them
- 2. 4 or more goals 51% by the model, 3.72 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 71% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.0 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Serie A previews
- Lazio vs Lecce Saturday 21 November 2026
- Como vs Cagliari Saturday 21 November 2026
- Parma vs Roma Saturday 21 November 2026
- Napoli vs Torino Saturday 21 November 2026
- Juventus vs Venezia Sunday 22 November 2026
- Sassuolo vs Genoa Sunday 22 November 2026
- Bologna vs Udinese Sunday 22 November 2026
- AC Milan vs Frosinone Sunday 22 November 2026
Monza vs Fiorentina: questions and answers
When is Monza vs Fiorentina?
Monza vs Fiorentina is on Monday 23 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 12.
Where is Monza vs Fiorentina played?
At U-Power Stadium, Monza, Monza's home ground.
Who will win Monza vs Fiorentina?
Monza are the favourites: Monza 45%, draw 22%, Fiorentina 33%. Our prediction is Monza 3-1 Fiorentina.
Who is the player to watch in Monza vs Fiorentina?
Franco Mastantuono of Fiorentina: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 65 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Monza vs Fiorentina?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 72%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.