FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig Prediction and Stats | Bundesliga Gameweek 10
Bundesliga · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 14:30 UTC · Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin · updated 2026-11-13
FC Union Berlin welcome RB Leipzig to Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Berlin in Bundesliga Gameweek 10 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
FC Union Berlin have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 11% of them. At home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 100% win rate. RB Leipzig have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 17% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, RB Leipzig are clear favourites at 67%, with the draw at 18% and FC Union Berlin at 15%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: FC Union Berlin 1.14, RB Leipzig 2.51.
- Over 2.5 goals: 71% · both teams to score: 63%.
- Most likely score: 1–3 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
FC Union Berlin: form and key numbers
In style FC Union Berlin are happy without the ball, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.12 a match created, 1.93 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.1).
- Shots: 10.2 a match, 3.2 on target.
- Possession: 41.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 22% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 44% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.66.
RB Leipzig: form and key numbers
In style RB Leipzig keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 2.37 a match created, 1.37 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.7).
- Shots: 17.2 a match, 6.9 on target.
- Possession: 55.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 56% of matches (20% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 0.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.04.
FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig: season averages side by side
| FC Union Berlin | Per match this season | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 9 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 3.0 |
| 2.3 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.12 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.37 |
| 1.93 | xG conceded | 1.37 |
| 10.2 | Shots | 17.2 |
| 3.2 | On target | 6.9 |
| 41.8 | Possession % | 55.1 |
| 22% | Clean sheets % | 56% |
| 44% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 3.1 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 2.7 | Yellow cards | 0.9 |
| 6.66 | Average rating | 7.04 |
Players to watch
FC Union Berlin
- Leopold Querfeld CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 68 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 3% of his position)
- Felix Uduokhai CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 61 · Blocks shots, Box defender (top 3% of his position)
RB Leipzig
- Rômulo CF · Pressing forward · Moneyball Score 65 · Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter (top 4% of his position)
- Maarten Vandevoordt GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 65 · Shot-stopper, Secure passer (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Antonio Nusa
Antonio Nusa, 21 · RB Leipzig · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 85
Antonio Nusa, 21, plays as a winger for RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in big chances created and expected assists (est.). Weakest in accurate crosses. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 85
- LM · Wide midfielder Natural, 81
- RM · Wide midfielder Competent, 51
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances created | 1.24 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.51 / 90 | 96% |
| Successful dribbles | 3.03 / 90 | 94% |
| Key passes | 2.62 / 90 | 92% |
| Shots | 2.62 / 90 | 81% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Big-chance creator, Creator, Dribbler.
- What Antonio Nusa is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Antonio Nusa's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig prediction
RB Leipzig should have more of the ball, with FC Union Berlin likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; FC Union Berlin are a threat in the air and from set pieces; RB Leipzig like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals - 1.14 for FC Union Berlin and 2.51 for RB Leipzig - with over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams scoring at 63%. RB Leipzig have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: FC Union Berlin 1-3 RB Leipzig
FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig: what the numbers say
- 1. RB Leipzig win, the likeliest result 67% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 71% by the model, 3.65 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.6 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 corners or fewer 8.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig: questions and answers
When is FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 10.
Where is FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig played?
At Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin, FC Union Berlin's home ground.
Who will win FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig are the favourites: FC Union Berlin 15%, draw 18%, RB Leipzig 67%. Our prediction is FC Union Berlin 1-3 RB Leipzig.
Who is the player to watch in FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Antonio Nusa of RB Leipzig: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 85 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 71%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.