FC Bayern München vs FC Köln Prediction and Stats | Bundesliga Gameweek 10
Bundesliga · Friday 20 November 2026 · 19:30 UTC · Allianz Arena, Munich · updated 2026-11-13
FC Bayern München welcome FC Köln to Allianz Arena in Munich in Bundesliga Gameweek 10 action on Friday 20 November 2026, kick-off 19:30 UTC.
FC Bayern München have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 3.2 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 5.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate. FC Köln have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 22% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, FC Bayern München are clear favourites at 76%, with the draw at 15% and FC Köln at 9%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: FC Bayern München 2.77, FC Köln 0.90.
- Over 2.5 goals: 71% · both teams to score: 56%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
FC Bayern München: form and key numbers
In style FC Bayern München keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 3.03 a match created, 0.88 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.8).
- Shots: 23.6 a match, 9.4 on target.
- Possession: 66.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 22% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 78% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.17.
FC Köln: form and key numbers
In style FC Köln are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.54 a match created, 1.58 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.9).
- Shots: 15.1 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 50.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 11% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 78% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
FC Bayern München vs FC Köln: season averages side by side
| FC Bayern München | Per match this season | FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 9 |
| 3.2 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 3.03 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.54 |
| 0.88 | xG conceded | 1.58 |
| 23.6 | Shots | 15.1 |
| 9.4 | On target | 4.8 |
| 66.1 | Possession % | 50.3 |
| 22% | Clean sheets % | 11% |
| 78% | Both teams scored % | 78% |
| 8.6 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 7.17 | Average rating | 6.81 |
Players to watch
FC Bayern München
- Ismael Saibari AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 69 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 1% of his position)
- Harry Kane CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 69 · Gets into scoring positions, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
FC Köln
- Marvin Schwäbe GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 64 · Long passer, Shot-stopper (top 14% of his position)
- Tom Krauß DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 62 · Reads the game, Ball-winner (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Michael Olise
Michael Olise, 24 · FC Bayern München · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 92
Michael Olise, 24, plays as a winger for FC Bayern München in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 92
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 88
- RM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 85
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 4.46 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.56 / 90 | 99% |
| Shots | 4.82 / 90 | 99% |
| Big chances created | 0.96 / 90 | 98% |
| Fouls won | 2.17 / 90 | 97% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★★ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, High shot volume.
- What Michael Olise is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Michael Olise's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
FC Bayern München vs FC Köln prediction
FC Bayern München should have more of the ball, with FC Köln likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; FC Bayern München like to take players on; FC Köln are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals - 2.77 for FC Bayern München and 0.90 for FC Köln - with over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams scoring at 56%. FC Bayern München have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: FC Bayern München 3-1 FC Köln
FC Bayern München vs FC Köln: what the numbers say
- 1. FC Bayern München win, the likeliest result 76% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 71% by the model, 3.67 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- 4. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.4 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 14.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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FC Bayern München vs FC Köln: questions and answers
When is FC Bayern München vs FC Köln?
FC Bayern München vs FC Köln is on Friday 20 November 2026, kick-off 19:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 10.
Where is FC Bayern München vs FC Köln played?
At Allianz Arena, Munich, FC Bayern München's home ground.
Who will win FC Bayern München vs FC Köln?
FC Bayern München are the favourites: FC Bayern München 76%, draw 15%, FC Köln 9%. Our prediction is FC Bayern München 3-1 FC Köln.
Who is the player to watch in FC Bayern München vs FC Köln?
Michael Olise of FC Bayern München: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 92 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in FC Bayern München vs FC Köln?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 71%.
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Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.