FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction and Stats | Bundesliga Gameweek 10
Bundesliga · Sunday 22 November 2026 · 14:30 UTC · WWK Arena, Augsburg · updated 2026-11-13
FC Augsburg welcome FSV Mainz 05 to WWK Arena in Augsburg in Bundesliga Gameweek 10 action on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
FC Augsburg have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.2 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 22% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate. FSV Mainz 05 have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 2.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, FC Augsburg are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 20% and FSV Mainz 05 at 37%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: FC Augsburg 2.37, FSV Mainz 05 2.20.
- Over 2.5 goals: 83% · both teams to score: 81%.
- Most likely score: 3–2 (6%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
FC Augsburg: form and key numbers
In style FC Augsburg are happy without the ball, cross a lot, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 2.01 a match created, 2.70 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.9).
- Shots: 16.9 a match, 6.7 on target.
- Possession: 44.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 11% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 89% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.9 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
FSV Mainz 05: form and key numbers
In style FSV Mainz 05 press high, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.89 a match created, 1.75 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.0).
- Shots: 16.0 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 48.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05: season averages side by side
| FC Augsburg | Per match this season | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 9 |
| 2.2 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 2.2 | Goals conceded | 2.1 |
| 2.01 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.89 |
| 2.70 | xG conceded | 1.75 |
| 16.9 | Shots | 16.0 |
| 6.7 | On target | 5.2 |
| 44.7 | Possession % | 48.3 |
| 11% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 89% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 4.9 | Corners | 5.9 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 6.90 | Average rating | 6.88 |
Players to watch
FC Augsburg
- Finn Dahmen GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 69 · Box defender, Shot-stopper (top 19% of his position)
- Marius Wolf RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 65 · Creator, Hard to dribble past (top 4% of his position)
FSV Mainz 05
- Anthony Caci RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 72 · Chance creator, Reads the game (top 7% of his position)
- Phillip Tietz CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 70 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Michael Gregoritsch
Michael Gregoritsch, 32 · FC Augsburg · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 84
Michael Gregoritsch, 32, plays as a centre-forward for FC Augsburg in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in shots on target and expected goals. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 84
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 71
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target | 68% | 98% |
| Expected goals | 0.83 / 90 | 92% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.83 / 90 | 92% |
| Aerial duels won | 4.04 / 90 | 90% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.21 xG/shot | 89% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Target man Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Accurate shooter, Gets into scoring positions, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring.
- What Michael Gregoritsch is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Michael Gregoritsch's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction
FSV Mainz 05 should have more of the ball; FC Augsburg work the ball wide and cross; FSV Mainz 05 are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 4.6 goals - 2.37 for FC Augsburg and 2.20 for FSV Mainz 05 - with over 2.5 goals at 83% and both teams scoring at 81%. FC Augsburg have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: FC Augsburg 3-2 FSV Mainz 05
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05: what the numbers say
- 1. FC Augsburg unbeaten (win or draw) 63% between them
- 2. 4 or more goals 67% by the model, 4.57 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 81% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.9 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 10.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05: questions and answers
When is FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 is on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 10.
Where is FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 played?
At WWK Arena, Augsburg, FC Augsburg's home ground.
Who will win FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
FC Augsburg are the favourites: FC Augsburg 43%, draw 20%, FSV Mainz 05 37%. Our prediction is FC Augsburg 3-2 FSV Mainz 05.
Who is the player to watch in FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Michael Gregoritsch of FC Augsburg: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 84 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 83%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.