Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Derby County Prediction and Stats | Championship Gameweek 17
Championship · Tuesday 24 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton · updated 2026-11-13
Wolverhampton Wanderers welcome Derby County to Molineux Stadium in Wolverhampton in Championship Gameweek 17 action on Tuesday 24 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Wolverhampton Wanderers have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 53% of them. At home they average 1.9 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 7 matches, with a 50% win rate. Derby County have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 13% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.1 conceded over 7 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Wolverhampton Wanderers are clear favourites at 73%, with the draw at 17% and Derby County at 10%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Wolverhampton Wanderers 2.40, Derby County 0.79.
- Over 2.5 goals: 62% · both teams to score: 50%.
- Most likely score: 3–0 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (15 and 15 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Wolverhampton Wanderers: form and key numbers
In style Wolverhampton Wanderers keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.72 a match created, 0.93 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 16.9 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 54.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 27% of matches (75% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Derby County: form and key numbers
In style Derby County play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.11 a match created, 2.10 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.7).
- Shots: 11.9 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 46.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 7% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Derby County: season averages side by side
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | Per match this season | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Matches | 15 |
| 1.7 | Goals scored | 0.9 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 1.72 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.11 |
| 0.93 | xG conceded | 2.10 |
| 16.9 | Shots | 11.9 |
| 4.5 | On target | 3.8 |
| 54.6 | Possession % | 46.8 |
| 27% | Clean sheets % | 7% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 6.7 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
| 6.87 | Average rating | 6.70 |
Players to watch
Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Raúl Jiménez CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 57 · Rarely wastes a big chance, Dominant in the air (top 20% of his position)
- Rafiki Saïd LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 51 · Big-chance creator, High shot volume (top 15% of his position)
Derby County
- Jacob Widell Zetterström GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 45 · Shot-stopper, Dominant in the air (top 30% of his position)
- David Ozoh DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 36 · Ball-winner, Secure passer (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Joe Ward
Joe Ward, 31 · Derby County · RMF · Wide playmaker · Moneyball Score 49
Joe Ward, 31, plays as a wide midfielder for Derby County in the Championship. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and dispossessed. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wide midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RB · Full-back Natural, 49
- RM · Wide midfielder Natural, 49
- RWB · Wing-back Accomplished, 46
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 2.02 / 90 | 91% |
| Dispossessed | 0.25 / 90 | 91% |
| Interceptions | 1.90 / 90 | 86% |
| Key passes | 2.28 / 90 | 77% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.23 / 90 | 50% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Crosser, Press-resistant, Reads the game.
- What Joe Ward is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Derby County prediction
Wolverhampton Wanderers should have more of the ball, with Derby County likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Wolverhampton Wanderers work the ball wide and cross; Derby County are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 2.40 for Wolverhampton Wanderers and 0.79 for Derby County - with over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 50%. Wolverhampton Wanderers have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Wolverhampton Wanderers 3-0 Derby County
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Derby County: what the numbers say
- 1. Wolverhampton Wanderers win, the likeliest result 73% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 62% by the model, 3.19 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.1 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 or more corners 12.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Championship previews
- Southampton vs Derby County Saturday 21 November 2026
- Norwich City vs Cardiff City Saturday 21 November 2026
- Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers Saturday 21 November 2026
- Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Charlton Athletic Saturday 21 November 2026
- West Ham United vs Preston North End Saturday 21 November 2026
- Swansea City vs West Bromwich Albion Saturday 21 November 2026
- Stoke City vs Birmingham City Saturday 21 November 2026
- Sheffield United vs Watford Saturday 21 November 2026
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Derby County: questions and answers
When is Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Derby County?
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Derby County is on Tuesday 24 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 17.
Where is Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Derby County played?
At Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton, Wolverhampton Wanderers's home ground.
Who will win Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Derby County?
Wolverhampton Wanderers are the favourites: Wolverhampton Wanderers 73%, draw 17%, Derby County 10%. Our prediction is Wolverhampton Wanderers 3-0 Derby County.
Who is the player to watch in Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Derby County?
Joe Ward of Derby County: a wide playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 49 against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Derby County?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.