Norwich City vs Cardiff City Prediction and Stats | Championship Gameweek 16
Championship · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 12:30 UTC · Carrow Road, Norwich · updated 2026-11-13
Norwich City welcome Cardiff City to Carrow Road in Norwich in Championship Gameweek 16 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 12:30 UTC.
Norwich City have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 2.1 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 47% of them. At home they average 1.9 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 7 matches, with a 43% win rate. Cardiff City have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 27% of them. Away from home they average 0.9 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 7 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Norwich City are narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 21% and Cardiff City at 31%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Norwich City 2.19, Cardiff City 1.78.
- Over 2.5 goals: 76% · both teams to score: 74%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (6%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (15 and 15 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Norwich City: form and key numbers
In style Norwich City keep the ball, are strong in the air, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.57 a match created, 1.54 conceded (goals minus xG: +8.5).
- Shots: 14.7 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 52.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Cardiff City: form and key numbers
In style Cardiff City keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 2.13 a match created, 1.61 conceded (goals minus xG: -5.0).
- Shots: 16.5 a match, 6.3 on target.
- Possession: 60.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 7% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 73% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
Norwich City vs Cardiff City: season averages side by side
| Norwich City | Per match this season | Cardiff City |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Matches | 15 |
| 2.1 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 1.57 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.13 |
| 1.54 | xG conceded | 1.61 |
| 14.7 | Shots | 16.5 |
| 5.3 | On target | 6.3 |
| 52.5 | Possession % | 60.1 |
| 13% | Clean sheets % | 7% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 73% |
| 4.7 | Corners | 6.4 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 6.83 | Average rating | 6.90 |
Players to watch
Norwich City
- Jovon Makama CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 42 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 24% of his position)
- Pelle Mattsson CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 41 · Reads the game, Chance creator (top 13% of his position)
Cardiff City
- Alex Robertson DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 45 · Disciplined, Blocks shots (top 14% of his position)
- Will Fish CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 42 · Hard to dribble past, Dominant in the air (top 12% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Yousef Salech
Yousef Salech, 24 · Cardiff City · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 51
Yousef Salech, 24, plays as a centre-forward for Cardiff City in the Championship. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and shots on target. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 51
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 44
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.20 xG/shot | 87% |
| Shots on target | 51% | 80% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.61 / 90 | 79% |
| Expected goals | 0.65 / 90 | 73% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.60 / 90 | 63% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter.
- What Yousef Salech is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Yousef Salech's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Norwich City vs Cardiff City prediction
Cardiff City should have more of the ball; Norwich City are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Cardiff City go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals - 2.19 for Norwich City and 1.78 for Cardiff City - with over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams scoring at 74%. Norwich City have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Norwich City 3-1 Cardiff City
Norwich City vs Cardiff City: what the numbers say
- 1. Norwich City unbeaten (win or draw) 69% between them
- 2. 4 or more goals 56% by the model, 3.96 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 74% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.7 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 11.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Norwich City vs Cardiff City: questions and answers
When is Norwich City vs Cardiff City?
Norwich City vs Cardiff City is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 12:30 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 16.
Where is Norwich City vs Cardiff City played?
At Carrow Road, Norwich, Norwich City's home ground.
Who will win Norwich City vs Cardiff City?
Norwich City are the favourites: Norwich City 47%, draw 21%, Cardiff City 31%. Our prediction is Norwich City 3-1 Cardiff City.
Who is the player to watch in Norwich City vs Cardiff City?
Yousef Salech of Cardiff City: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 51 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Norwich City vs Cardiff City?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 76%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.