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Vitória vs Bragantino Prediction and Stats | Brasileirão Gameweek 35

Vitória welcome Bragantino to Estádio Manoel Barradas in Salvador in Brasileirão Gameweek 35 action on Thursday 19 November 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC.

Vitória have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 29% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 0.9 conceded over 17 matches, with a 100% win rate. Bragantino have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 38% of them. Away from home they average 0.9 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 17 matches, with a 31% win rate.

On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Vitória 32%, the draw 27%, Bragantino 40%.

Moneyball's estimate

Vitória32%home win
Draw27%draw
Bragantino40%away win

From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.

Vitória: form and key numbers

In style Vitória are happy without the ball, play long and direct.

Bragantino: form and key numbers

In style Bragantino play long and direct, cross a lot, take players on.

Vitória vs Bragantino: season averages side by side

VitóriaPer match this seasonBragantino
34Matches34
1.0Goals scored1.3
1.5Goals conceded1.1
1.01Expected goals (xG)1.51
1.60xG conceded1.82
11.9Shots16.9
4.1On target5.5
44.8Possession %49.6
32%Clean sheets %26%
41%Both teams scored %53%
4.4Corners6.1
2.4Yellow cards2.5
6.77Average rating6.85

Players to watch

Vitória

Bragantino

Scouting spotlight: Henry Mosquera

Henry Mosquera, 24 · Bragantino · LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 62

Henry Mosquera, 24, plays as a winger for Bragantino in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and key passes. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.

Successful dribbles 99Expected goals 23Expected assists 79Key passes 81Shots 62Accurate crosses 76Big chances created 71Fouls won 11Dispossessed 3

Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.

Positions he can play

  • LW · Winger Natural, 62
  • LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 59
  • RW · Winger Accomplished, 59

Where he is strongest

FigureHis numberBetter than
Successful dribbles5.64 / 9099%
Key passes2.54 / 9081%
Expected assists (est.)0.29 / 9079%
Accurate crosses1.08 / 9076%
Big chances created0.44 / 9071%

Roles he suits

  • ★★★★½ Classic winger Winger
  • ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
  • ★★★★ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder

Scout's notes: Dribbler, Chance creator.

In Moneyball Scout
  • What Henry Mosquera is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
  • How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
  • The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
  • His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age

Open Henry Mosquera's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month

Vitória vs Bragantino prediction

Bragantino should have more of the ball; Vitória go long and direct; Bragantino work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.27 for Vitória and 1.45 for Bragantino - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 56%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.

Prediction: Vitória 1-1 Bragantino

Vitória vs Bragantino: what the numbers say

  1. 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 40%
  2. 2. 2 or more goals 2.72 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
  3. 3. Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
  4. 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 14.9 cards a match between them
  5. 5. 10 or more corners 10.6 corners a match between them

Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.

The full analysis

Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.

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Vitória vs Bragantino: questions and answers

When is Vitória vs Bragantino?

Vitória vs Bragantino is on Thursday 19 November 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 35.

Where is Vitória vs Bragantino played?

At Estádio Manoel Barradas, Salvador, Vitória's home ground.

Who will win Vitória vs Bragantino?

It is close: Vitória 32%, draw 27%, Bragantino 40%. Our prediction is Vitória 1-1 Bragantino.

Who is the player to watch in Vitória vs Bragantino?

Henry Mosquera of Bragantino: a classic winger with a Moneyball Score of 62 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.

How many goals will there be in Vitória vs Bragantino?

Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.

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Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.