Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro Prediction and Stats | Brasileirão Gameweek 35
Brasileirão · Saturday 14 November 2026 · 21:30 UTC · Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol · updated 2026-11-13
Mirassol welcome Atlético Mineiro to Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Mirassol in Brasileirão Gameweek 35 action on Saturday 14 November 2026, kick-off 21:30 UTC.
Mirassol have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 29% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 17 matches, with a 70% win rate. Atlético Mineiro have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 41% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 17 matches, with a 29% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Mirassol 34%, the draw 27%, Atlético Mineiro 39%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Mirassol 1.31, Atlético Mineiro 1.42.
- Over 2.5 goals: 52% · both teams to score: 56%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Mirassol: form and key numbers
In style Mirassol cross a lot, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.34 a match created, 1.82 conceded (goals minus xG: -6.7).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 49.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 9% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 65% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Atlético Mineiro: form and key numbers
In style Atlético Mineiro play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.34 a match created, 1.35 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.5).
- Shots: 13.8 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 49.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 24% of matches (38% away).
- Both teams scored in 47% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro: season averages side by side
| Mirassol | Per match this season | Atlético Mineiro |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 1.34 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.34 |
| 1.82 | xG conceded | 1.35 |
| 13.4 | Shots | 13.8 |
| 4.3 | On target | 4.7 |
| 49.7 | Possession % | 49.4 |
| 9% | Clean sheets % | 24% |
| 65% | Both teams scored % | 47% |
| 5.2 | Corners | 5.2 |
| 2.6 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 6.86 |
Players to watch
Mirassol
- Nathan Fogaça CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 60 · Gets into scoring positions, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring (top 20% of his position)
- Gabriel CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 57 · Reads the game, Box defender (top 13% of his position)
Atlético Mineiro
- Fred CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 64 · Creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 3% of his position)
- Léo Duarte CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 57 · Blocks shots, Disciplined (top 17% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Reinaldo
Reinaldo, 37 · Mirassol · LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 56
Reinaldo, 37, plays as a wing-back for Mirassol in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and key passes. Weakest in interceptions. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 56
- LB · Full-back Natural, 53
- LM · Wide midfielder Competent, 34
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 2.35 / 90 | 96% |
| Key passes | 2.55 / 90 | 94% |
| Expected goals | 0.19 / 90 | 89% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.29 / 90 | 82% |
| Dribbled past | 0.67 / 90 | 40% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★½ Attacking wing-back Wing-back
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Crosser, Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Reinaldo is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro prediction
Mirassol should have more of the ball; Mirassol work the ball wide and cross; Atlético Mineiro go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.31 for Mirassol and 1.42 for Atlético Mineiro - with over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 56%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Mirassol 1-1 Atlético Mineiro
Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 39%
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.74 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (52%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 13.3 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 10.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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- Grêmio vs Bahia Thursday 19 November 2026
- Corinthians vs Botafogo Thursday 19 November 2026
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Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro: questions and answers
When is Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro?
Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro is on Saturday 14 November 2026, kick-off 21:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 35.
Where is Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro played?
At Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol, Mirassol's home ground.
Who will win Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro?
It is close: Mirassol 34%, draw 27%, Atlético Mineiro 39%. Our prediction is Mirassol 1-1 Atlético Mineiro.
Who is the player to watch in Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro?
Reinaldo of Mirassol: a attacking wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 56 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.