Flamengo vs Athletico PR Prediction and Stats | Brasileirão Gameweek 35
Brasileirão · Wednesday 18 November 2026 · 23:30 UTC · Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Rio de Janeiro · updated 2026-11-13
Flamengo welcome Athletico PR to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Rio de Janeiro in Brasileirão Gameweek 35 action on Wednesday 18 November 2026, kick-off 23:30 UTC.
Flamengo have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 2.1 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 68% of them. At home they average 2.1 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 17 matches, with a 57% win rate. Athletico PR have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 44% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 17 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Flamengo are clear favourites at 66%, with the draw at 20% and Athletico PR at 14%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Flamengo 2.16, Athletico PR 0.90.
- Over 2.5 goals: 59% · both teams to score: 53%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Flamengo: form and key numbers
In style Flamengo keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.78 a match created, 0.95 conceded (goals minus xG: +10.4).
- Shots: 16.1 a match, 5.8 on target.
- Possession: 57.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 41% of matches (57% at home).
- Both teams scored in 53% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 7.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.00.
Athletico PR: form and key numbers
In style Athletico PR play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.32 a match created, 1.56 conceded (goals minus xG: +6.1).
- Shots: 13.2 a match, 4.9 on target.
- Possession: 47.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 24% of matches (38% away).
- Both teams scored in 59% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Flamengo vs Athletico PR: season averages side by side
| Flamengo | Per match this season | Athletico PR |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 2.1 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.78 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.32 |
| 0.95 | xG conceded | 1.56 |
| 16.1 | Shots | 13.2 |
| 5.8 | On target | 4.9 |
| 57.0 | Possession % | 47.9 |
| 41% | Clean sheets % | 24% |
| 53% | Both teams scored % | 59% |
| 5.7 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 7.00 | Average rating | 6.82 |
Players to watch
Flamengo
- Samuel Lino LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 61 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 9% of his position)
- Giorgian de Arrascaeta AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 59 · Chance creator, Creator (top 13% of his position)
Athletico PR
- Kerwin Vargas RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 61 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 6% of his position)
- Lucas Esquivel LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 57 · Crosser, Ball-winner (top 12% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Jorge Carrascal
Jorge Carrascal, 28 · Flamengo · AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 70
Jorge Carrascal, 28, plays as an attacking midfielder for Flamengo in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in big chances created and expected assists (est.). Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 70
- RW · Winger Natural, 70
- ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 55
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances created | 0.85 / 90 | 94% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.46 / 90 | 93% |
| Key passes | 3.36 / 90 | 90% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.89 / 90 | 80% |
| Fouls won | 2.08 / 90 | 75% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Big-chance creator, Creator, Chance creator.
- What Jorge Carrascal is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Jorge Carrascal's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Flamengo vs Athletico PR prediction
Flamengo should have more of the ball, with Athletico PR likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Flamengo work the ball wide and cross; Athletico PR go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 2.16 for Flamengo and 0.90 for Athletico PR - with over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 53%. Flamengo have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Flamengo 2-1 Athletico PR
Flamengo vs Athletico PR: what the numbers say
- 1. Flamengo win, the likeliest result 66% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 59% by the model, 3.06 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 14.2 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 or more corners 11.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Brasileirão previews
- Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro Saturday 14 November 2026
- Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama Saturday 14 November 2026
- Coritiba vs Santos Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Remo vs Chapecoense Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Grêmio vs Bahia Thursday 19 November 2026
- Corinthians vs Botafogo Thursday 19 November 2026
- Vitória vs Bragantino Thursday 19 November 2026
Flamengo vs Athletico PR: questions and answers
When is Flamengo vs Athletico PR?
Flamengo vs Athletico PR is on Wednesday 18 November 2026, kick-off 23:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 35.
Where is Flamengo vs Athletico PR played?
At Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Rio de Janeiro, Flamengo's home ground.
Who will win Flamengo vs Athletico PR?
Flamengo are the favourites: Flamengo 66%, draw 20%, Athletico PR 14%. Our prediction is Flamengo 2-1 Athletico PR.
Who is the player to watch in Flamengo vs Athletico PR?
Jorge Carrascal of Flamengo: a dribbling playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 70 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Flamengo vs Athletico PR?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.