Corinthians vs Botafogo Prediction and Stats | Brasileirão Gameweek 35
Brasileirão · Thursday 19 November 2026 · 00:30 UTC · Arena Corinthians, São Paulo · updated 2026-11-13
Corinthians welcome Botafogo to Arena Corinthians in São Paulo in Brasileirão Gameweek 35 action on Thursday 19 November 2026, kick-off 00:30 UTC.
Corinthians have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 26% of them. At home they average 1.1 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 17 matches, with a 67% win rate. Botafogo have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 32% of them. Away from home they average 1.1 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 17 matches, with a 36% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Corinthians 37%, the draw 29%, Botafogo 33%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Corinthians 1.23, Botafogo 1.15.
- Over 2.5 goals: 43% · both teams to score: 49%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (7%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Corinthians: form and key numbers
In style Corinthians keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.04 a match created, 1.35 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.6).
- Shots: 13.6 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 54.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 35% of matches (58% at home).
- Both teams scored in 56% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match, 6.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Botafogo: form and key numbers
In style Botafogo cross a lot, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.25 a match created, 1.22 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.6).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 5.1 on target.
- Possession: 47.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 18% of matches (17% away).
- Both teams scored in 65% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
Corinthians vs Botafogo: season averages side by side
| Corinthians | Per match this season | Botafogo |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.04 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.25 |
| 1.35 | xG conceded | 1.22 |
| 13.6 | Shots | 14.3 |
| 4.0 | On target | 5.1 |
| 54.0 | Possession % | 47.9 |
| 35% | Clean sheets % | 18% |
| 56% | Both teams scored % | 65% |
| 5.2 | Corners | 4.7 |
| 2.8 | Yellow cards | 2.6 |
| 6.84 | Average rating | 6.80 |
Players to watch
Corinthians
- Fabrizio Angileri LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 58 · Chance creator, Crosser (top 11% of his position)
- Kauê GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 51 · Shot-stopper, Secure passer (top 26% of his position)
Botafogo
- Kadir Barría CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 63 · High shot volume, Duel winner (top 9% of his position)
- Raul GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 62 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Kaio César
Kaio César, 22 · Corinthians · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 50
Kaio César, 22, plays as a winger for Corinthians in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in fouls won and successful dribbles. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 50
- LW · Winger Competent, 30
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls won | 3.49 / 90 | 99% |
| Successful dribbles | 3.42 / 90 | 93% |
| Expected goals | 0.25 / 90 | 48% |
| Shots | 2.53 / 90 | 46% |
| Key passes | 1.71 / 90 | 42% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Draws fouls, Dribbler.
- What Kaio César is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Kaio César's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Corinthians vs Botafogo prediction
Corinthians should have more of the ball, with Botafogo likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 1.23 for Corinthians and 1.15 for Botafogo - with over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams scoring at 49%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Corinthians 1-1 Botafogo
Corinthians vs Botafogo: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 37%
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 57% by the model, 2.38 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 16.4 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 9.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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- Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Flamengo vs Athletico PR Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Grêmio vs Bahia Thursday 19 November 2026
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Corinthians vs Botafogo: questions and answers
When is Corinthians vs Botafogo?
Corinthians vs Botafogo is on Thursday 19 November 2026, kick-off 00:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 35.
Where is Corinthians vs Botafogo played?
At Arena Corinthians, São Paulo, Corinthians's home ground.
Who will win Corinthians vs Botafogo?
It is close: Corinthians 37%, draw 29%, Botafogo 33%. Our prediction is Corinthians 1-1 Botafogo.
Who is the player to watch in Corinthians vs Botafogo?
Kaio César of Corinthians: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 50 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Corinthians vs Botafogo?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 43%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.