Union Saint-Gilloise vs Lech Poznań Prediction and Stats | Europa League Gameweek 5
Europa League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · King Power at Den Dreef, Heverlee · updated 2026-11-13
Union Saint-Gilloise welcome Lech Poznań to King Power at Den Dreef in Heverlee in Europa League Gameweek 5 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Union Saint-Gilloise have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 75% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 33% win rate. Lech Poznań have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 0.5 and conceding 3.0 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 0.5 goals scored and 3.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Union Saint-Gilloise are clear favourites at 68%, with the draw at 19% and Lech Poznań at 13%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Union Saint-Gilloise 2.33, Lech Poznań 0.94.
- Over 2.5 goals: 63% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Union Saint-Gilloise: form and key numbers
In style Union Saint-Gilloise keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.49 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.1).
- Shots: 20.5 a match, 9.0 on target.
- Possession: 46.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.11.
Lech Poznań: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.03 a match created (goals minus xG: +8.8).
- Shots: 15.3 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 51.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 38% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 38% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.71.
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Lech Poznań: season averages side by side
| Union Saint-Gilloise | Per match this season | Lech Poznań |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 2.5 | Goals scored | 0.5 |
| 0.5 | Goals conceded | 3.0 |
| 2.49 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.03 |
| 20.5 | Shots | 15.3 |
| 9.0 | On target | 6.4 |
| 46.8 | Possession % | 51.1 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 38% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 38% |
| 2.5 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 7.11 | Average rating | 6.71 |
Players to watch
Union Saint-Gilloise
- Adem Zorgane CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 68 · Creator, Long passer (top 9% of his position)
- Relebohile Mofokeng LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 56 · Chance creator, Creator (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Massiré Sylla
Massiré Sylla, 21 · Union Saint-Gilloise · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 68
Massiré Sylla, 21, plays as a centre-back for Union Saint-Gilloise in the Belgian Pro League. Strongest for his role in duels won and tackles. Weakest in dribbled past. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 68
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 9.50 / 90 | 99% |
| Tackles | 3.60 / 90 | 96% |
| Clearances | 7.90 / 90 | 96% |
| Interceptions | 3.20 / 90 | 96% |
| Long balls | 3.50 / 90 | 81% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★★½ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★★ Anchor Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Ball-winner, Box defender.
- What Massiré Sylla is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Massiré Sylla's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Lech Poznań prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 2.33 for Union Saint-Gilloise and 0.94 for Lech Poznań - with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 55%. Union Saint-Gilloise have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 Lech Poznań
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Lech Poznań: what the numbers say
- 1. Union Saint-Gilloise win, the likeliest result 68% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 63% by the model, 3.27 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.0 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 corners or fewer 7.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Union Saint-Gilloise vs Lech Poznań: questions and answers
When is Union Saint-Gilloise vs Lech Poznań?
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Lech Poznań is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 5.
Where is Union Saint-Gilloise vs Lech Poznań played?
At King Power at Den Dreef, Heverlee, Union Saint-Gilloise's home ground.
Who will win Union Saint-Gilloise vs Lech Poznań?
Union Saint-Gilloise are the favourites: Union Saint-Gilloise 68%, draw 19%, Lech Poznań 13%. Our prediction is Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 Lech Poznań.
Who is the player to watch in Union Saint-Gilloise vs Lech Poznań?
Massiré Sylla of Union Saint-Gilloise: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 68 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Union Saint-Gilloise vs Lech Poznań?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.