Beşiktaş vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva Prediction and Stats | Europa League Gameweek 5
Europa League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Beşiktaş Stadium, İstanbul · updated 2026-11-13
Beşiktaş welcome Hapoel Be'er Sheva to Beşiktaş Stadium in İstanbul in Europa League Gameweek 5 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Beşiktaş have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.8 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 57% win rate. Hapoel Be'er Sheva have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 0.3 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 0.5 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Beşiktaş are narrow favourites at 55%, with the draw at 23% and Hapoel Be'er Sheva at 22%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Beşiktaş 1.93, Hapoel Be'er Sheva 1.16.
- Over 2.5 goals: 60% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Beşiktaş: form and key numbers
In style Beşiktaş keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.60 a match created (goals minus xG: +3.0).
- Shots: 16.4 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 60.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (60% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.9 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.97.
Hapoel Be'er Sheva: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.99 a match created (goals minus xG: -3.0).
- Shots: 10.8 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 54.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.67.
Beşiktaş vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva: season averages side by side
| Beşiktaş | Per match this season | Hapoel Be'er Sheva |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 2.8 | Goals scored | 0.3 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 1.60 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.99 |
| 16.4 | Shots | 10.8 |
| 4.5 | On target | 3.5 |
| 60.0 | Possession % | 54.8 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 25% |
| 4.9 | Corners | 2.8 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
| 6.97 | Average rating | 6.67 |
Players to watch
Beşiktaş
- Orkun Kökçü CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 39 · Gets into scoring positions, Chance creator (top 5% of his position)
- Emmanuel Agbadou CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 37 · Secure passer, Ball-winner (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Dušan Vlahović
Dušan Vlahović, 26 · Beşiktaş · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 53
Dušan Vlahović, 26, plays as a centre-forward for Beşiktaş in the Süper Lig. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and shots on target. Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 53
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 47
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.22 xG/shot | 96% |
| Shots on target | 55% | 87% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.91 / 90 | 78% |
| Expected goals | 0.85 / 90 | 75% |
| Big chances missed | 0.37 / 90 | 53% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter.
- What Dušan Vlahović is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Dušan Vlahović's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Beşiktaş vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.93 for Beşiktaş and 1.16 for Hapoel Be'er Sheva - with over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams scoring at 59%. Beşiktaş have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Beşiktaş 2-1 Hapoel Be'er Sheva
Beşiktaş vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva: what the numbers say
- 1. Beşiktaş unbeaten (win or draw) 78% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 60% by the model, 3.09 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.1 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 corners or fewer 7.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Beşiktaş vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva: questions and answers
When is Beşiktaş vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
Beşiktaş vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 5.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva played?
At Beşiktaş Stadium, İstanbul, Beşiktaş's home ground.
Who will win Beşiktaş vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
Beşiktaş are the favourites: Beşiktaş 55%, draw 23%, Hapoel Be'er Sheva 22%. Our prediction is Beşiktaş 2-1 Hapoel Be'er Sheva.
Who is the player to watch in Beşiktaş vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
Dušan Vlahović of Beşiktaş: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 53 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Beşiktaş vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.