Olympique Lyonnais vs Lillestrøm Prediction and Stats | Europa League Gameweek 5
Europa League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Groupama Stadium, Décines-Charpieu · updated 2026-11-13
Olympique Lyonnais welcome Lillestrøm to Groupama Stadium in Décines-Charpieu in Europa League Gameweek 5 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Olympique Lyonnais have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 50% win rate. Lillestrøm have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 0.5 and conceding 2.5 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Olympique Lyonnais are clear favourites at 66%, with the draw at 21% and Lillestrøm at 13%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Olympique Lyonnais 2.05, Lillestrøm 0.79.
- Over 2.5 goals: 54% · both teams to score: 48%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Olympique Lyonnais: form and key numbers
In style Olympique Lyonnais keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.47 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.1).
- Shots: 11.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 50.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Lillestrøm: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.03 a match created (goals minus xG: -2.2).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 2.8 on target.
- Possession: 54.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
Olympique Lyonnais vs Lillestrøm: season averages side by side
| Olympique Lyonnais | Per match this season | Lillestrøm |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 0.5 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 2.5 |
| 1.47 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.03 |
| 11.0 | Shots | 12.8 |
| 5.0 | On target | 2.8 |
| 50.5 | Possession % | 54.8 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 17% |
| 75% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 6.0 | Corners | 5.2 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 6.68 |
Players to watch
Olympique Lyonnais
- Dominik Greif GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 70 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 6% of his position)
- Corentin Tolisso CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 61 · Creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 6% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ernest Nuamah
Ernest Nuamah, 23 · Olympique Lyonnais · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 61
Ernest Nuamah, 23, plays as a winger for Olympique Lyonnais in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in expected goals and shots. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 61
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 58
- ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 53
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.48 / 90 | 97% |
| Shots | 3.34 / 90 | 83% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.11 / 90 | 78% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.07 / 90 | 64% |
| Dispossessed | 0.95 / 90 | 64% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume.
- What Ernest Nuamah is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ernest Nuamah's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Olympique Lyonnais vs Lillestrøm prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 2.05 for Olympique Lyonnais and 0.79 for Lillestrøm - with over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams scoring at 48%. Olympique Lyonnais have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Olympique Lyonnais 2-1 Lillestrøm
Olympique Lyonnais vs Lillestrøm: what the numbers say
- 1. Olympique Lyonnais win, the likeliest result 66% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.84 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (54%)
- 3. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.9 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 or more corners 11.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Olympique Lyonnais vs Lillestrøm: questions and answers
When is Olympique Lyonnais vs Lillestrøm?
Olympique Lyonnais vs Lillestrøm is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 5.
Where is Olympique Lyonnais vs Lillestrøm played?
At Groupama Stadium, Décines-Charpieu, Olympique Lyonnais's home ground.
Who will win Olympique Lyonnais vs Lillestrøm?
Olympique Lyonnais are the favourites: Olympique Lyonnais 66%, draw 21%, Lillestrøm 13%. Our prediction is Olympique Lyonnais 2-1 Lillestrøm.
Who is the player to watch in Olympique Lyonnais vs Lillestrøm?
Ernest Nuamah of Olympique Lyonnais: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Olympique Lyonnais vs Lillestrøm?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.