Sunderland vs Jagiellonia Białystok Prediction and Stats | Europa League Gameweek 5
Europa League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Stadium of Light, Sunderland · updated 2026-11-13
Sunderland welcome Jagiellonia Białystok to Stadium of Light in Sunderland in Europa League Gameweek 5 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Sunderland have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 0.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. Jagiellonia Białystok have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Sunderland are narrow favourites at 54%, with the draw at 25% and Jagiellonia Białystok at 21%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Sunderland 1.78, Jagiellonia Białystok 1.03.
- Over 2.5 goals: 53% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Sunderland: form and key numbers
In style Sunderland play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 2.25 a match created (goals minus xG: -5.0).
- Shots: 21.0 a match, 7.0 on target.
- Possession: 56.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.89.
Jagiellonia Białystok: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.61 a match created (goals minus xG: +8.1).
- Shots: 10.1 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 44.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 63% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.59.
Sunderland vs Jagiellonia Białystok: season averages side by side
| Sunderland | Per match this season | Jagiellonia Białystok |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 2.25 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.61 |
| 21.0 | Shots | 10.1 |
| 7.0 | On target | 4.3 |
| 56.3 | Possession % | 44.4 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 13% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 63% |
| 8.0 | Corners | 2.8 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.89 | Average rating | 6.59 |
Players to watch
Sunderland
- Nordi Mukiele RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 72 · Reads the game, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Trai Hume RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 59 · Crosser, Duel winner (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Brian Brobbey
Brian Brobbey, 24 · Sunderland · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 70
Brian Brobbey, 24, plays as a centre-forward for Sunderland in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and aerial duels won. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 70
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 61
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.23 xG/shot | 96% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.03 / 90 | 86% |
| Expected goals | 0.57 / 90 | 82% |
| Duels won | 5.63 / 90 | 79% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.54 / 90 | 78% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Dominant in the air, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Brian Brobbey is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Brian Brobbey's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Sunderland vs Jagiellonia Białystok prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.78 for Sunderland and 1.03 for Jagiellonia Białystok - with over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams scoring at 54%. Sunderland have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Sunderland 2-1 Jagiellonia Białystok
Sunderland vs Jagiellonia Białystok: what the numbers say
- 1. Sunderland unbeaten (win or draw) 79% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.80 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (53%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.5 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 or more corners 10.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Sunderland vs Jagiellonia Białystok: questions and answers
When is Sunderland vs Jagiellonia Białystok?
Sunderland vs Jagiellonia Białystok is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 5.
Where is Sunderland vs Jagiellonia Białystok played?
At Stadium of Light, Sunderland, Sunderland's home ground.
Who will win Sunderland vs Jagiellonia Białystok?
Sunderland are the favourites: Sunderland 54%, draw 25%, Jagiellonia Białystok 21%. Our prediction is Sunderland 2-1 Jagiellonia Białystok.
Who is the player to watch in Sunderland vs Jagiellonia Białystok?
Brian Brobbey of Sunderland: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 70 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Sunderland vs Jagiellonia Białystok?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.