Sparta Praha vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction and Stats | Europa League Gameweek 5
Europa League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · TC Strahov, Praha · updated 2026-11-13
Sparta Praha welcome AZ Alkmaar to TC Strahov in Praha in Europa League Gameweek 5 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Sparta Praha have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate. AZ Alkmaar have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Sparta Praha 39%, the draw 27%, AZ Alkmaar 35%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Sparta Praha 1.46, AZ Alkmaar 1.37.
- Over 2.5 goals: 54% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Sparta Praha: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.55 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.2).
- Shots: 16.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 48.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.75.
AZ Alkmaar: form and key numbers
In style AZ Alkmaar keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.80 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.2).
- Shots: 15.3 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 57.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Sparta Praha vs AZ Alkmaar: season averages side by side
| Sparta Praha | Per match this season | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.55 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.80 |
| 16.0 | Shots | 15.3 |
| 5.0 | On target | 5.3 |
| 48.3 | Possession % | 57.8 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 75% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 6.3 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.75 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Players to watch
AZ Alkmaar
- Mexx Meerdink CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 60 · Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions (top 1% of his position)
- Ayoub Oufkir RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 60 · Chance creator, Dribbler (top 27% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Weslley Patati
Weslley Patati, 23 · AZ Alkmaar · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 64
Weslley Patati, 23, plays as a winger for AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and shots. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 64
- LW · Winger Competent, 38
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 1.88 / 90 | 85% |
| Shots | 3.76 / 90 | 81% |
| Expected goals | 0.35 / 90 | 79% |
| Big chances created | 0.51 / 90 | 75% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.54 / 90 | 70% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★½ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Crosser, High shot volume.
- What Weslley Patati is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Weslley Patati's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Sparta Praha vs AZ Alkmaar prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.46 for Sparta Praha and 1.37 for AZ Alkmaar - with over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams scoring at 58%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Sparta Praha 1-1 AZ Alkmaar
Sparta Praha vs AZ Alkmaar: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 39%
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.83 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (54%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.3 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 11.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Sparta Praha vs AZ Alkmaar: questions and answers
When is Sparta Praha vs AZ Alkmaar?
Sparta Praha vs AZ Alkmaar is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 5.
Where is Sparta Praha vs AZ Alkmaar played?
At TC Strahov, Praha, Sparta Praha's home ground.
Who will win Sparta Praha vs AZ Alkmaar?
It is close: Sparta Praha 39%, draw 27%, AZ Alkmaar 35%. Our prediction is Sparta Praha 1-1 AZ Alkmaar.
Who is the player to watch in Sparta Praha vs AZ Alkmaar?
Weslley Patati of AZ Alkmaar: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Sparta Praha vs AZ Alkmaar?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.