Slavia Praha vs Villarreal Prediction and Stats | Champions League Gameweek 5
Champions League · Wednesday 25 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Fortuna Arena, Praha · updated 2026-11-13
Slavia Praha welcome Villarreal to Fortuna Arena in Praha in Champions League Gameweek 5 action on Wednesday 25 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Slavia Praha have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate. Villarreal have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 3.5 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 2.5 goals scored and 3.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Villarreal are narrow favourites at 54%, with the draw at 23% and Slavia Praha at 23%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Slavia Praha 1.24, Villarreal 1.99.
- Over 2.5 goals: 63% · both teams to score: 62%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Slavia Praha: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 2.03 a match created (goals minus xG: -3.1).
- Shots: 17.0 a match, 5.8 on target.
- Possession: 46.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.69.
Villarreal: form and key numbers
In style Villarreal keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.19 a match created (goals minus xG: +3.2).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 44.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.60.
Slavia Praha vs Villarreal: season averages side by side
| Slavia Praha | Per match this season | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 2.3 | Goals conceded | 3.5 |
| 2.03 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.19 |
| 17.0 | Shots | 14.3 |
| 5.8 | On target | 4.3 |
| 46.8 | Possession % | 44.0 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 75% | Both teams scored % | 75% |
| 5.3 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 2.8 |
| 6.69 | Average rating | 6.60 |
Players to watch
Villarreal
- Alberto Moleiro LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 68 · Chance creator, Crosser (top 7% of his position)
- Sergi Cardona LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 68 · Reads the game, Creator (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Tajon Buchanan
Tajon Buchanan, 27 · Villarreal · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 70
Tajon Buchanan, 27, plays as a winger for Villarreal in La Liga. Strongest for his role in fouls won and big chances created. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RM · Wide midfielder Natural, 70
- RW · Winger Natural, 70
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 67
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls won | 2.98 / 90 | 99% |
| Big chances created | 0.14 / 90 | 89% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.85 / 90 | 87% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.18 / 90 | 85% |
| Shots | 3.26 / 90 | 80% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Draws fouls, Big-chance creator, Crosser.
- What Tajon Buchanan is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Tajon Buchanan's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Slavia Praha vs Villarreal prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.24 for Slavia Praha and 1.99 for Villarreal - with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 62%. Villarreal have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Slavia Praha 1-2 Villarreal
Slavia Praha vs Villarreal: what the numbers say
- 1. Villarreal unbeaten (win or draw) 77% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 63% by the model, 3.23 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 62% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.8 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Slavia Praha vs Villarreal: questions and answers
When is Slavia Praha vs Villarreal?
Slavia Praha vs Villarreal is on Wednesday 25 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 5.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Villarreal played?
At Fortuna Arena, Praha, Slavia Praha's home ground.
Who will win Slavia Praha vs Villarreal?
Villarreal are the favourites: Slavia Praha 23%, draw 23%, Villarreal 54%. Our prediction is Slavia Praha 1-2 Villarreal.
Who is the player to watch in Slavia Praha vs Villarreal?
Tajon Buchanan of Villarreal: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 70 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Slavia Praha vs Villarreal?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.