Galatasaray vs Aston Villa Prediction and Stats | Champions League Gameweek 5
Champions League · Tuesday 24 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Rams Park, İstanbul · updated 2026-11-13
Galatasaray welcome Aston Villa to Rams Park in İstanbul in Champions League Gameweek 5 action on Tuesday 24 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Galatasaray have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. Aston Villa have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 75% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Galatasaray 35%, the draw 23%, Aston Villa 41%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Galatasaray 1.69, Aston Villa 1.84.
- Over 2.5 goals: 68% · both teams to score: 69%.
- Most likely score: 1–3 (5%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Galatasaray: form and key numbers
In style Galatasaray keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.05 a match created (goals minus xG: +3.8).
- Shots: 9.5 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 46.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.69.
Aston Villa: form and key numbers
In style Aston Villa are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 2.33 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.7).
- Shots: 17.8 a match, 7.8 on target.
- Possession: 42.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.94.
Galatasaray vs Aston Villa: season averages side by side
| Galatasaray | Per match this season | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 3.0 |
| 2.3 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 1.05 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.33 |
| 9.5 | Shots | 17.8 |
| 3.5 | On target | 7.8 |
| 46.8 | Possession % | 42.8 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 75% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 3.0 | Corners | 7.5 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
| 6.69 | Average rating | 6.94 |
Players to watch
Galatasaray
- Victor Osimhen CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 62 · High shot volume, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring (top 1% of his position)
- Rafael Leão LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 61 · Dribbler, Gets into scoring positions (top 15% of his position)
Aston Villa
- Zion Suzuki GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 79 · Box defender, Shot-stopper (top 6% of his position)
- Alysson RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 68 · Dribbler, Big-chance creator (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: John McGinn
John McGinn, 32 · Aston Villa · RMF · Wide playmaker · Moneyball Score 63
John McGinn, 32, plays as a wide midfielder for Aston Villa in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and key passes. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wide midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RM · Wide midfielder Natural, 63
- RW · Winger Natural, 61
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 59
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.21 / 90 | 98% |
| Key passes | 2.15 / 90 | 93% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.68 / 90 | 84% |
| Tackles | 1.47 / 90 | 80% |
| Duels won | 5.21 / 90 | 61% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Box-to-box midfielder Central midfielder
Scout's notes: Creator, Chance creator, Crosser.
- What John McGinn is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open John McGinn's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Galatasaray vs Aston Villa prediction
Galatasaray should have more of the ball, with Aston Villa likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Galatasaray work the ball wide and cross; Aston Villa like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 1.69 for Galatasaray and 1.84 for Aston Villa - with over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams scoring at 69%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Galatasaray 2-2 Aston Villa
Galatasaray vs Aston Villa: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 41%
- 2. 3 or more goals 68% by the model, 3.53 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 69% by the model
- 4. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.8 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 10.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Galatasaray vs Aston Villa: questions and answers
When is Galatasaray vs Aston Villa?
Galatasaray vs Aston Villa is on Tuesday 24 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 5.
Where is Galatasaray vs Aston Villa played?
At Rams Park, İstanbul, Galatasaray's home ground.
Who will win Galatasaray vs Aston Villa?
It is close: Galatasaray 35%, draw 23%, Aston Villa 41%. Our prediction is Galatasaray 2-2 Aston Villa.
Who is the player to watch in Galatasaray vs Aston Villa?
John McGinn of Aston Villa: a wide playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 63 against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Galatasaray vs Aston Villa?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.