São Paulo vs Fluminense Prediction and Stats | Brasileirão Gameweek 35
Brasileirão · Friday 20 November 2026 · 00:30 UTC · Estádio Nicolau Alayon, São Paulo · updated 2026-11-13
São Paulo welcome Fluminense to Estádio Nicolau Alayon in São Paulo in Brasileirão Gameweek 35 action on Friday 20 November 2026, kick-off 00:30 UTC.
São Paulo have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 35% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 17 matches, with a 83% win rate. Fluminense have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 47% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 17 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: São Paulo 41%, the draw 27%, Fluminense 32%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: São Paulo 1.42, Fluminense 1.22.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
São Paulo: form and key numbers
In style São Paulo keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.45 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: -10.4).
- Shots: 13.7 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 53.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 24% of matches (88% at home).
- Both teams scored in 56% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Fluminense: form and key numbers
In style Fluminense keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.39 a match created, 1.40 conceded (goals minus xG: +7.6).
- Shots: 14.7 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 59.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 21% of matches (29% away).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
São Paulo vs Fluminense: season averages side by side
| São Paulo | Per match this season | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.1 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 1.45 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.39 |
| 1.23 | xG conceded | 1.40 |
| 13.7 | Shots | 14.7 |
| 4.2 | On target | 5.6 |
| 53.3 | Possession % | 59.0 |
| 24% | Clean sheets % | 21% |
| 56% | Both teams scored % | 71% |
| 6.8 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 6.84 | Average rating | 6.92 |
Players to watch
São Paulo
- Pedro Lima RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 71 · Hard to dribble past, Reads the game (top 8% of his position)
- Ferreirinha LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 64 · Dribbler, Draws fouls (top 4% of his position)
Fluminense
- Igor Rabello CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 64 · Hard to dribble past, Blocks shots (top 13% of his position)
- Jefferson Savarino LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 57 · Crosser, Gets into scoring positions (top 6% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Luciano Acosta
Luciano Acosta, 32 · Fluminense · AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 63
Luciano Acosta, 32, plays as an attacking midfielder for Fluminense in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 63
- ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 48
- LW · Winger Competent, 38
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 3.05 / 90 | 86% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.36 / 90 | 84% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.00 / 90 | 83% |
| Big chances created | 0.55 / 90 | 82% |
| Dispossessed | 0.83 / 90 | 81% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, Dribbler.
- What Luciano Acosta is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Luciano Acosta's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
São Paulo vs Fluminense prediction
Fluminense should have more of the ball; São Paulo work the ball wide and cross; Fluminense like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.42 for São Paulo and 1.22 for Fluminense - with over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 54%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: São Paulo 1-1 Fluminense
São Paulo vs Fluminense: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 41%
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.64 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (49%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 9.7 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 or more corners 12.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Brasileirão previews
- Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro Saturday 14 November 2026
- Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama Saturday 14 November 2026
- Coritiba vs Santos Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Remo vs Chapecoense Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Flamengo vs Athletico PR Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Grêmio vs Bahia Thursday 19 November 2026
- Corinthians vs Botafogo Thursday 19 November 2026
São Paulo vs Fluminense: questions and answers
When is São Paulo vs Fluminense?
São Paulo vs Fluminense is on Friday 20 November 2026, kick-off 00:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 35.
Where is São Paulo vs Fluminense played?
At Estádio Nicolau Alayon, São Paulo, São Paulo's home ground.
Who will win São Paulo vs Fluminense?
It is close: São Paulo 41%, draw 27%, Fluminense 32%. Our prediction is São Paulo 1-1 Fluminense.
Who is the player to watch in São Paulo vs Fluminense?
Luciano Acosta of Fluminense: a dribbling playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 63 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in São Paulo vs Fluminense?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.