Santos vs Grêmio Prediction and Stats | Brasileirão Gameweek 36
Brasileirão · Tuesday 24 November 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Estádio Nicolau Alayon, São Paulo · updated 2026-11-13
Santos welcome Grêmio to Estádio Nicolau Alayon in São Paulo in Brasileirão Gameweek 36 action on Tuesday 24 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
Santos have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 35% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 17 matches, with a 50% win rate. Grêmio have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 26% of them. Away from home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 17 matches, with a 11% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Santos are narrow favourites at 56%, with the draw at 24% and Grêmio at 20%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Santos 1.87, Grêmio 1.04.
- Over 2.5 goals: 56% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Santos: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.34 a match created, 1.32 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.5).
- Shots: 13.9 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 50.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 21% of matches (57% at home).
- Both teams scored in 74% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Grêmio: form and key numbers
In style Grêmio play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.06 a match created, 1.93 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.8).
- Shots: 12.0 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 49.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 24% of matches (38% away).
- Both teams scored in 59% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Santos vs Grêmio: season averages side by side
| Santos | Per match this season | Grêmio |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.34 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.06 |
| 1.32 | xG conceded | 1.93 |
| 13.9 | Shots | 12.0 |
| 4.3 | On target | 3.8 |
| 50.3 | Possession % | 49.1 |
| 21% | Clean sheets % | 24% |
| 74% | Both teams scored % | 59% |
| 5.4 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 3.0 | Yellow cards | 2.6 |
| 6.82 | Average rating | 6.78 |
Players to watch
Santos
- Benjamín Rollheiser RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 69 · Chance creator, Creator (top 2% of his position)
- Miguelito AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 51 · Dribbler, Secure passer (top 31% of his position)
Grêmio
Scouting spotlight: Neymar
Neymar, 34 · Santos · AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 59
Neymar, 34, plays as an attacking midfielder for Santos in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in fouls won and expected goals. Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 59
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 56
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 56
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls won | 4.38 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected goals | 0.55 / 90 | 94% |
| Shots | 3.66 / 90 | 90% |
| Key passes | 2.51 / 90 | 66% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.27 / 90 | 64% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Draws fouls, Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume.
- What Neymar is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Santos vs Grêmio prediction
Santos should have more of the ball; Grêmio go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.87 for Santos and 1.04 for Grêmio - with over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams scoring at 55%. Santos have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Santos 2-1 Grêmio
Santos vs Grêmio: what the numbers say
- 1. Santos win, the likeliest result 56% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 56% by the model, 2.91 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 15.6 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Brasileirão previews
- Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro Saturday 14 November 2026
- Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama Saturday 14 November 2026
- Coritiba vs Santos Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Remo vs Chapecoense Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Flamengo vs Athletico PR Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Grêmio vs Bahia Thursday 19 November 2026
- Corinthians vs Botafogo Thursday 19 November 2026
Santos vs Grêmio: questions and answers
When is Santos vs Grêmio?
Santos vs Grêmio is on Tuesday 24 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 36.
Where is Santos vs Grêmio played?
At Estádio Nicolau Alayon, São Paulo, Santos's home ground.
Who will win Santos vs Grêmio?
Santos are the favourites: Santos 56%, draw 24%, Grêmio 20%. Our prediction is Santos 2-1 Grêmio.
Who is the player to watch in Santos vs Grêmio?
Neymar of Santos: a shadow striker with a Moneyball Score of 59 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Santos vs Grêmio?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.