MoneyballDixon-Coles · xG fusion
Back to Moneyball

Rostov vs Krylya Sovetov Prediction and Stats | Russian Premier League Gameweek 15

Rostov welcome Krylya Sovetov to Rostov Arena in Rostov in Russian Premier League Gameweek 15 action on Friday 20 November 2026, kick-off 16:30 UTC.

Rostov have played 14 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 36% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 60% win rate. Krylya Sovetov have played 14 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 29% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 6 matches, with a 50% win rate.

On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Rostov 37%, the draw 28%, Krylya Sovetov 35%.

Moneyball's estimate

Rostov37%home win
Draw28%draw
Krylya Sovetov35%away win

From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (14 and 14 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.

Rostov: form and key numbers

In style Rostov play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.

Krylya Sovetov: form and key numbers

Rostov vs Krylya Sovetov: season averages side by side

RostovPer match this seasonKrylya Sovetov
14Matches14
1.3Goals scored1.4
1.4Goals conceded1.4
0.99Expected goals (xG)1.56
1.21xG conceded1.27
13.6Shots13.8
5.0On target4.5
47.1Possession %49.4
36%Clean sheets %29%
43%Both teams scored %57%
4.3Corners4.2
2.4Yellow cards2.4
6.83Average rating6.78

Players to watch

Rostov

Krylya Sovetov

Scouting spotlight: Ygor Nogueira

Ygor Nogueira, 31 · Rostov · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 30

Ygor Nogueira, 31, plays as a centre-back for Rostov in the Russian Premier League. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and duels won. Weakest in passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.

Aerial duels won 82Clearances 23Interceptions 39Tackles 34Blocked shots 12Duels won 78Passes 0Pass accuracy 2Long balls 65Dribbled past 70

Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.

Positions he can play

  • CB · Centre-back Natural, 30

Where he is strongest

FigureHis numberBetter than
Aerial duels won4.33 / 9082%
Duels won8.26 / 9078%
Dribbled past0.16 / 9070%
Long balls4.25 / 9065%
Interceptions1.76 / 9039%

Roles he suits

  • ★★★ Stopper Centre-back
  • ★★ Box defender Centre-back
  • ★½ Anchor Defensive midfielder

Scout's notes: Dominant in the air.

In Moneyball Scout
  • What Ygor Nogueira is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
  • How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
  • The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
  • His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age

Open Ygor Nogueira's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month

Rostov vs Krylya Sovetov prediction

Krylya Sovetov should have more of the ball; Rostov are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.31 for Rostov and 1.26 for Krylya Sovetov - with over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams scoring at 53%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.

Prediction: Rostov 1-1 Krylya Sovetov

Rostov vs Krylya Sovetov: what the numbers say

  1. 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 37%
  2. 2. 2 goals or fewer 53% by the model, 2.56 goals expected
  3. 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.7 cards a match between them
  4. 4. 10 corners or fewer 8.5 corners a match between them

Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.

The full analysis

Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.

Open Moneyball Follow it live

More Russian Premier League previews

Rostov vs Krylya Sovetov: questions and answers

When is Rostov vs Krylya Sovetov?

Rostov vs Krylya Sovetov is on Friday 20 November 2026, kick-off 16:30 UTC, in Russian Premier League Gameweek 15.

Where is Rostov vs Krylya Sovetov played?

At Rostov Arena, Rostov, Rostov's home ground.

Who will win Rostov vs Krylya Sovetov?

It is close: Rostov 37%, draw 28%, Krylya Sovetov 35%. Our prediction is Rostov 1-1 Krylya Sovetov.

Who is the player to watch in Rostov vs Krylya Sovetov?

Ygor Nogueira of Rostov: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 30 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.

How many goals will there be in Rostov vs Krylya Sovetov?

Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 47%.

Tags

Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.