Orenburg vs Baltika Kaliningrad Prediction and Stats | Russian Premier League Gameweek 15
Russian Premier League · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 10:00 UTC · Stadion Gazovik, Orenburg · updated 2026-11-13
Orenburg welcome Baltika Kaliningrad to Stadion Gazovik in Orenburg in Russian Premier League Gameweek 15 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 10:00 UTC.
Orenburg have played 14 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 21% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 7 matches, with a 67% win rate. Baltika Kaliningrad have played 14 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 29% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 6 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Orenburg 31%, the draw 31%, Baltika Kaliningrad 38%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Orenburg 1.03, Baltika Kaliningrad 1.18.
- Over 2.5 goals: 38% · both teams to score: 45%.
- Most likely score: 0–2 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (14 and 14 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Orenburg: form and key numbers
In style Orenburg are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.36 a match created, 1.57 conceded (goals minus xG: -5.0).
- Shots: 13.3 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 38.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 36% of matches (60% at home).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.6 a match.
- Discipline: 3.8 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Baltika Kaliningrad: form and key numbers
In style Baltika Kaliningrad are happy without the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.47 a match created, 0.83 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.6).
- Shots: 13.1 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 42.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (75% away).
- Both teams scored in 57% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Orenburg vs Baltika Kaliningrad: season averages side by side
| Orenburg | Per match this season | Baltika Kaliningrad |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Matches | 14 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.2 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.1 |
| 1.36 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.47 |
| 1.57 | xG conceded | 0.83 |
| 13.3 | Shots | 13.1 |
| 4.4 | On target | 4.4 |
| 38.1 | Possession % | 42.3 |
| 36% | Clean sheets % | 29% |
| 43% | Both teams scored % | 57% |
| 3.6 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 3.8 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.77 | Average rating | 6.77 |
Players to watch
Orenburg
- Jordhy Thompson RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 34 · Crosser, Gets into scoring positions (top 7% of his position)
- Bogdan Ovsyannikov GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 32 · Box defender, Long passer (top 48% of his position)
Baltika Kaliningrad
- Fahd Moufi RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 35 · Hard to dribble past, Gets into scoring positions (top 25% of his position)
- E. Ćivić LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 25 · Crosser, Duel winner (top 31% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Brayan Gil
Brayan Gil, 25 · Baltika Kaliningrad · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 32
Brayan Gil, 25, plays as a centre-forward for Baltika Kaliningrad in the Russian Premier League. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and shots on target. Weakest in shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 32
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 28
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.23 xG/shot | 96% |
| Shots on target | 55% | 87% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.99 / 90 | 72% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.60 / 90 | 40% |
| Expected goals | 0.60 / 90 | 37% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★ Target man Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter.
- What Brayan Gil is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Brayan Gil's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Orenburg vs Baltika Kaliningrad prediction
Baltika Kaliningrad should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.2 goals - 1.03 for Orenburg and 1.18 for Baltika Kaliningrad - with over 2.5 goals at 38% and both teams scoring at 45%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Orenburg 1-1 Baltika Kaliningrad
Orenburg vs Baltika Kaliningrad: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 38%
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 62% by the model, 2.21 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 10.8 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 8.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Russian Premier League previews
- Rostov vs Krylya Sovetov Friday 20 November 2026
- Akron vs Fakel Saturday 21 November 2026
- Rubin Kazan vs Zenit Saturday 21 November 2026
- CSKA Moskva vs Akhmat Grozny Saturday 21 November 2026
- Dinamo Moskva vs Krasnodar Sunday 22 November 2026
- Dynamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moskva Sunday 22 November 2026
- Rodina Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva Sunday 22 November 2026
Orenburg vs Baltika Kaliningrad: questions and answers
When is Orenburg vs Baltika Kaliningrad?
Orenburg vs Baltika Kaliningrad is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 10:00 UTC, in Russian Premier League Gameweek 15.
Where is Orenburg vs Baltika Kaliningrad played?
At Stadion Gazovik, Orenburg, Orenburg's home ground.
Who will win Orenburg vs Baltika Kaliningrad?
It is close: Orenburg 31%, draw 31%, Baltika Kaliningrad 38%. Our prediction is Orenburg 1-1 Baltika Kaliningrad.
Who is the player to watch in Orenburg vs Baltika Kaliningrad?
Brayan Gil of Baltika Kaliningrad: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 32 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Orenburg vs Baltika Kaliningrad?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 38%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.