CSKA Moskva vs Akhmat Grozny Prediction and Stats | Russian Premier League Gameweek 15
Russian Premier League · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 16:45 UTC · VEB Arena, Moskva · updated 2026-11-13
CSKA Moskva welcome Akhmat Grozny to VEB Arena in Moskva in Russian Premier League Gameweek 15 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
CSKA Moskva have played 14 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 1.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded over 8 matches, with a 71% win rate. Akhmat Grozny have played 14 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 21% of them. Away from home they average 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 7 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, CSKA Moskva are narrow favourites at 53%, with the draw at 25% and Akhmat Grozny at 22%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: CSKA Moskva 1.76, Akhmat Grozny 1.07.
- Over 2.5 goals: 54% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (14 and 14 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
CSKA Moskva: form and key numbers
In style CSKA Moskva play long and direct, cross a lot, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.76 a match created, 1.54 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.6).
- Shots: 16.6 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 51.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 36% of matches (80% at home).
- Both teams scored in 64% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Akhmat Grozny: form and key numbers
In style Akhmat Grozny play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.14 a match created, 1.29 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.1).
- Shots: 12.6 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 47.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 21% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
CSKA Moskva vs Akhmat Grozny: season averages side by side
| CSKA Moskva | Per match this season | Akhmat Grozny |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Matches | 14 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 1.1 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.76 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.14 |
| 1.54 | xG conceded | 1.29 |
| 16.6 | Shots | 12.6 |
| 5.6 | On target | 3.7 |
| 51.6 | Possession % | 47.9 |
| 36% | Clean sheets % | 21% |
| 64% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 4.6 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.88 | Average rating | 6.81 |
Players to watch
CSKA Moskva
- Vladislav Torop GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 30 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 29% of his position)
- Maksim Borisko GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 27 · Dominant in the air, Shot-stopper (top 20% of his position)
Akhmat Grozny
- Kalidou Sidibé DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 26 · Hard to dribble past, Press-resistant (top 2% of his position)
- Arsen Adamov RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 25 · Hard to dribble past, Crosser (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ivan Oblyakov
Ivan Oblyakov, 28 · CSKA Moskva · CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 27
Ivan Oblyakov, 28, plays as a central midfielder for CSKA Moskva in the Russian Premier League. Strongest for his role in expected goals and key passes. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 27
- DM · Defensive midfielder Accomplished, 19
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 19
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.34 / 90 | 91% |
| Key passes | 2.40 / 90 | 77% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.23 / 90 | 66% |
| Long balls | 3.21 / 90 | 65% |
| Interceptions | 1.46 / 90 | 43% |
Roles he suits
- ★★½ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★ Box-to-box midfielder Central midfielder
- ★½ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions.
- What Ivan Oblyakov is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ivan Oblyakov's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
CSKA Moskva vs Akhmat Grozny prediction
CSKA Moskva should have more of the ball; CSKA Moskva work the ball wide and cross; Akhmat Grozny are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.76 for CSKA Moskva and 1.07 for Akhmat Grozny - with over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams scoring at 55%. CSKA Moskva have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: CSKA Moskva 2-1 Akhmat Grozny
CSKA Moskva vs Akhmat Grozny: what the numbers say
- 1. CSKA Moskva unbeaten (win or draw) 78% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.83 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (54%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 7.4 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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CSKA Moskva vs Akhmat Grozny: questions and answers
When is CSKA Moskva vs Akhmat Grozny?
CSKA Moskva vs Akhmat Grozny is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Russian Premier League Gameweek 15.
Where is CSKA Moskva vs Akhmat Grozny played?
At VEB Arena, Moskva, CSKA Moskva's home ground.
Who will win CSKA Moskva vs Akhmat Grozny?
CSKA Moskva are the favourites: CSKA Moskva 53%, draw 25%, Akhmat Grozny 22%. Our prediction is CSKA Moskva 2-1 Akhmat Grozny.
Who is the player to watch in CSKA Moskva vs Akhmat Grozny?
Ivan Oblyakov of CSKA Moskva: a playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 27 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in CSKA Moskva vs Akhmat Grozny?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.