Paris Saint Germain vs Roma Prediction and Stats | Champions League Gameweek 5
Champions League · Wednesday 25 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Parc des Princes, Paris · updated 2026-11-13
Paris Saint Germain welcome Roma to Parc des Princes in Paris in Champions League Gameweek 5 action on Wednesday 25 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Paris Saint Germain have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 5.0 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 100% of them. At home they average 5.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. Roma have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Paris Saint Germain 37%, the draw 24%, Roma 39%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Paris Saint Germain 1.65, Roma 1.71.
- Over 2.5 goals: 65% · both teams to score: 67%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Paris Saint Germain: form and key numbers
In style Paris Saint Germain keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 2.96 a match created (goals minus xG: +8.2).
- Shots: 23.5 a match, 12.5 on target.
- Possession: 58.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 0.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.23.
Roma: form and key numbers
In style Roma keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.81 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.8).
- Shots: 13.8 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 58.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Paris Saint Germain vs Roma: season averages side by side
| Paris Saint Germain | Per match this season | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 5.0 | Goals scored | 2.5 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 2.96 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.81 |
| 23.5 | Shots | 13.8 |
| 12.5 | On target | 6.0 |
| 58.8 | Possession % | 58.3 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 75% | Both teams scored % | 75% |
| 4.8 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 0.3 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 7.23 | Average rating | 6.83 |
Players to watch
Paris Saint Germain
- Fabián Ruiz CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 82 · Ball circulator, Press-resistant (top 2% of his position)
- João Neves CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 79 · Ball-winner, Gets into scoring positions (top 2% of his position)
Roma
- Paulo Dybala SS · Link-up forward · Moneyball Score 83 · Chance creator, Creator (top 3% of his position)
- Matías Soulé RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 80 · High shot volume, Crosser (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Désiré Doué
Désiré Doué, 21 · Paris Saint Germain · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 86
Désiré Doué, 21, plays as a winger for Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in shots and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 86
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 83
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 82
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 4.61 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.31 / 90 | 97% |
| Key passes | 2.56 / 90 | 96% |
| Big chances created | 0.51 / 90 | 96% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.85 / 90 | 92% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Creator, Chance creator.
- What Désiré Doué is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Désiré Doué's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Paris Saint Germain vs Roma prediction
Paris Saint Germain should have more of the ball; Paris Saint Germain like to take players on; Roma work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 1.65 for Paris Saint Germain and 1.71 for Roma - with over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams scoring at 67%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Paris Saint Germain 1-1 Roma
Paris Saint Germain vs Roma: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 39%
- 2. 3 or more goals 65% by the model, 3.36 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 67% by the model
- 4. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 2.3 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Paris Saint Germain vs Roma: questions and answers
When is Paris Saint Germain vs Roma?
Paris Saint Germain vs Roma is on Wednesday 25 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 5.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Roma played?
At Parc des Princes, Paris, Paris Saint Germain's home ground.
Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Roma?
It is close: Paris Saint Germain 37%, draw 24%, Roma 39%. Our prediction is Paris Saint Germain 1-1 Roma.
Who is the player to watch in Paris Saint Germain vs Roma?
Désiré Doué of Paris Saint Germain: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 86 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Paris Saint Germain vs Roma?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.