Palmeiras vs Flamengo Prediction and Stats | Brasileirão Gameweek 36
Brasileirão · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 19:30 UTC · Allianz Parque, São Paulo · updated 2026-11-13
Palmeiras welcome Flamengo to Allianz Parque in São Paulo in Brasileirão Gameweek 36 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 19:30 UTC.
Palmeiras have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 62% of them. At home they average 2.1 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 17 matches, with a 62% win rate. Flamengo have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 2.1 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 68% of them. Away from home they average 2.1 goals scored and 0.9 conceded over 17 matches, with a 43% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Palmeiras 39%, the draw 29%, Flamengo 32%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Palmeiras 1.28, Flamengo 1.14.
- Over 2.5 goals: 44% · both teams to score: 50%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (7%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Palmeiras: form and key numbers
In style Palmeiras press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.54 a match created, 1.01 conceded (goals minus xG: +9.6).
- Shots: 15.5 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 52.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 47% of matches (44% at home).
- Both teams scored in 53% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Flamengo: form and key numbers
In style Flamengo keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.78 a match created, 0.95 conceded (goals minus xG: +10.4).
- Shots: 16.1 a match, 5.8 on target.
- Possession: 57.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 41% of matches (43% away).
- Both teams scored in 53% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 7.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.00.
Palmeiras vs Flamengo: season averages side by side
| Palmeiras | Per match this season | Flamengo |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 2.1 |
| 0.7 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 1.54 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.78 |
| 1.01 | xG conceded | 0.95 |
| 15.5 | Shots | 16.1 |
| 5.3 | On target | 5.8 |
| 52.3 | Possession % | 57.0 |
| 47% | Clean sheets % | 41% |
| 53% | Both teams scored % | 53% |
| 5.9 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.95 | Average rating | 7.00 |
Players to watch
Palmeiras
- Vitor Roque CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 64 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 11% of his position)
- Emiliano Martínez DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 55 · Reads the game, Secure passer (top 11% of his position)
Flamengo
- Samuel Lino LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 61 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 9% of his position)
- Giorgian de Arrascaeta AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 59 · Chance creator, Creator (top 13% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Jorge Carrascal
Jorge Carrascal, 28 · Flamengo · AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 70
Jorge Carrascal, 28, plays as an attacking midfielder for Flamengo in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in big chances created and expected assists (est.). Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 70
- RW · Winger Natural, 70
- ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 55
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances created | 0.85 / 90 | 94% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.46 / 90 | 93% |
| Key passes | 3.36 / 90 | 90% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.89 / 90 | 80% |
| Fouls won | 2.08 / 90 | 75% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Big-chance creator, Creator, Chance creator.
- What Jorge Carrascal is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Jorge Carrascal's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Palmeiras vs Flamengo prediction
Flamengo should have more of the ball; Palmeiras like to take players on; Flamengo work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 1.28 for Palmeiras and 1.14 for Flamengo - with over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams scoring at 50%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Palmeiras 1-1 Flamengo
Palmeiras vs Flamengo: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 39%
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 56% by the model, 2.42 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 16.4 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 or more corners 11.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Brasileirão previews
- Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro Saturday 14 November 2026
- Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama Saturday 14 November 2026
- Coritiba vs Santos Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Remo vs Chapecoense Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Flamengo vs Athletico PR Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Grêmio vs Bahia Thursday 19 November 2026
- Corinthians vs Botafogo Thursday 19 November 2026
Palmeiras vs Flamengo: questions and answers
When is Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
Palmeiras vs Flamengo is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 19:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 36.
Where is Palmeiras vs Flamengo played?
At Allianz Parque, São Paulo, Palmeiras's home ground.
Who will win Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
It is close: Palmeiras 39%, draw 29%, Flamengo 32%. Our prediction is Palmeiras 1-1 Flamengo.
Who is the player to watch in Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
Jorge Carrascal of Flamengo: a dribbling playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 70 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.