OFI vs Anderlecht Prediction and Stats | Europa League Gameweek 5

Europa League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Pankritio Stadio, Heraklion · updated 2026-11-13

OFI welcome Anderlecht to Pankritio Stadio in Heraklion in Europa League Gameweek 5 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.

OFI have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. Anderlecht have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 43% win rate.

On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: OFI 38%, the draw 29%, Anderlecht 33%.

Moneyball's estimate

OFI38%home win

Draw29%draw

Anderlecht33%away win

Expected goals: OFI 1.24, Anderlecht 1.15.
Over 2.5 goals: 43% · both teams to score: 49%.
Most likely score: 2–0 (7%).

From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.

OFI: form and key numbers

Expected goals: 0.66 a match created (goals minus xG: +6.1).
Shots: 8.3 a match, 3.3 on target.
Possession: 38.2% on average.
Clean sheets: 67% of matches (50% at home).
Both teams scored in 17% of their matches.
Corners: 3.3 a match.
Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.85.

Anderlecht: form and key numbers

In style Anderlecht keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.

Expected goals: 1.08 a match created (goals minus xG: +9.2).
Shots: 11.8 a match, 5.9 on target.
Possession: 48.0% on average.
Clean sheets: 50% of matches (60% away).
Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
Corners: 4.7 a match.
Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.

OFI vs Anderlecht: season averages side by side

OFI	Per match this season	Anderlecht
4	Matches	4
1.3	Goals scored	1.5
1.0	Goals conceded	0.8
0.66	Expected goals (xG)	1.08
8.3	Shots	11.8
3.3	On target	5.9
38.2	Possession %	48.0
67%	Clean sheets %	50%
17%	Both teams scored %	40%
3.3	Corners	4.7
1.2	Yellow cards	2.5
6.85	Average rating	6.78

Players to watch

Anderlecht

Tawfik Bentayeb CF · Pressing forward · Moneyball Score 47 · Accurate shooter, Dominant in the air (top 15% of his position)
Marten Winkler RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 46 · Crosser, Big-chance creator (top 8% of his position)

Scouting spotlight: Ilias Koutsoupias

Ilias Koutsoupias, 25 · Anderlecht · CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 52

Ilias Koutsoupias, 25, plays as a central midfielder for Anderlecht in the Belgian Pro League. Strongest for his role in interceptions and pass accuracy. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.

Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.

Positions he can play

CM · Central midfielder Natural, 52
DM · Defensive midfielder Accomplished, 48

Where he is strongest

Figure	His number	Better than
Interceptions	1.95 / 90	87%
Pass accuracy	91%	75%
Key passes	1.51 / 90	60%
Expected assists (est.)	0.16 / 90	60%
Passes	59.28 / 90	59%

Roles he suits

★★★ Playmaker Central midfielder
★★½ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
★★ Anchor Defensive midfielder

Scout's notes: Reads the game.

In Moneyball Scout

What Ilias Koutsoupias is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age

Open Ilias Koutsoupias's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month

OFI vs Anderlecht prediction

Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 1.24 for OFI and 1.15 for Anderlecht - with over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams scoring at 49%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.

Prediction: OFI 1-1 Anderlecht

OFI vs Anderlecht: what the numbers say

1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 38%
2. 2 goals or fewer 57% by the model, 2.39 goals expected
3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.7 cards a match between them
4. 10 corners or fewer 8.0 corners a match between them

Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.

The full analysis

Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.

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OFI vs Anderlecht: questions and answers

When is OFI vs Anderlecht?

OFI vs Anderlecht is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 5.

Where is OFI vs Anderlecht played?

At Pankritio Stadio, Heraklion, OFI's home ground.

Who will win OFI vs Anderlecht?

It is close: OFI 38%, draw 29%, Anderlecht 33%. Our prediction is OFI 1-1 Anderlecht.

Who is the player to watch in OFI vs Anderlecht?

Ilias Koutsoupias of Anderlecht: a playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 52 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.

How many goals will there be in OFI vs Anderlecht?

Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 43%.