Northern Ireland vs Ukraine Prediction and Stats
UEFA Nations League B · Sunday 15 November 2026 · updated 2026-11-13
Northern Ireland welcome Ukraine in UEFA Nations League B action on Sunday 15 November 2026.
Northern Ireland have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. Ukraine have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the pre-match consensus, there is little to separate them: Northern Ireland 38%, the draw 30%, Ukraine 31%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 2.25 goals: 47%.
Northern Ireland vs Ukraine: season averages side by side
| Northern Ireland | Per match | Ukraine |
|---|---|---|
| 0.99 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.41 |
| 1.48 | xG conceded | 1.97 |
| 0.86 | Goals | 1.56 |
| 12.4 | Shots | 11.2 |
| 17.0 | Tackles | 16.3 |
| 8.0 | Fouls | 9.3 |
| 0.5 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 8 and 10 measured matches.
Northern Ireland vs Ukraine prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.49 for Northern Ireland and 1.23 for Ukraine - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Northern Ireland 1-1 Ukraine
Northern Ireland vs Ukraine: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 38%
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More UEFA Nations League B previews
- Scotland vs North Macedonia Saturday 14 November 2026
- Slovenia vs Switzerland Saturday 14 November 2026
- Kosovo vs Israel Saturday 14 November 2026
- Georgia vs Hungary Sunday 15 November 2026
- Romania vs Poland Sunday 15 November 2026
- Sweden vs Bosnia and Herzegovina Sunday 15 November 2026
Northern Ireland vs Ukraine: questions and answers
When is Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?
Northern Ireland vs Ukraine is on Sunday 15 November 2026, in UEFA Nations League B.
Who will win Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?
It is close: Northern Ireland 38%, draw 30%, Ukraine 31%. Our prediction is Northern Ireland 1-1 Ukraine.
How many goals will there be in Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.