Romania vs Poland Prediction and Stats
UEFA Nations League B · Sunday 15 November 2026 · updated 2026-11-13
Romania welcome Poland in UEFA Nations League B action on Sunday 15 November 2026.
Romania have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. Poland have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the pre-match consensus, Poland are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 28% and Romania at 28%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 2.75 goals: 47%.
Romania vs Poland: season averages side by side
| Romania | Per match | Poland |
|---|---|---|
| 2.16 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.30 |
| 1.10 | xG conceded | 1.54 |
| 1.38 | Goals | 1.88 |
| 12.8 | Shots | 15.5 |
| 12.0 | Tackles | 11.0 |
| 12.0 | Fouls | 17.5 |
| 1.5 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 8 and 8 measured matches.
Romania vs Poland prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.49 for Romania and 1.23 for Poland - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Poland have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Romania 1-2 Poland
Romania vs Poland: what the numbers say
- 1. Poland unbeaten (win or draw) 72% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More UEFA Nations League B previews
- Scotland vs North Macedonia Saturday 14 November 2026
- Slovenia vs Switzerland Saturday 14 November 2026
- Kosovo vs Israel Saturday 14 November 2026
- Georgia vs Hungary Sunday 15 November 2026
- Sweden vs Bosnia and Herzegovina Sunday 15 November 2026
- Austria vs Republic of Ireland Sunday 15 November 2026
Romania vs Poland: questions and answers
When is Romania vs Poland?
Romania vs Poland is on Sunday 15 November 2026, in UEFA Nations League B.
Who will win Romania vs Poland?
Poland are the favourites: Romania 28%, draw 28%, Poland 43%. Our prediction is Romania 1-2 Poland.
How many goals will there be in Romania vs Poland?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.