Middlesbrough vs Swansea City Prediction and Stats | Championship Gameweek 17
Championship · Tuesday 24 November 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough · updated 2026-11-13
Middlesbrough welcome Swansea City to Riverside Stadium in Middlesbrough in Championship Gameweek 17 action on Tuesday 24 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Middlesbrough have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 53% of them. At home they average 2.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 7 matches, with a 63% win rate. Swansea City have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 53% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.9 conceded over 8 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Middlesbrough are narrow favourites at 55%, with the draw at 23% and Swansea City at 21%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Middlesbrough 1.92, Swansea City 1.13.
- Over 2.5 goals: 59% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (15 and 15 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Middlesbrough: form and key numbers
In style Middlesbrough keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.99 a match created, 1.01 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.2).
- Shots: 19.1 a match, 6.1 on target.
- Possession: 60.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 27% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Swansea City: form and key numbers
In style Swansea City keep the ball, press high.
- Expected goals: 1.58 a match created, 1.48 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.7).
- Shots: 11.9 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 59.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 47% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Middlesbrough vs Swansea City: season averages side by side
| Middlesbrough | Per match this season | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Matches | 15 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 1.99 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.58 |
| 1.01 | xG conceded | 1.48 |
| 19.1 | Shots | 11.9 |
| 6.1 | On target | 4.5 |
| 60.8 | Possession % | 59.0 |
| 27% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 47% |
| 6.1 | Corners | 4.2 |
| 1.1 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
| 6.95 | Average rating | 6.82 |
Players to watch
Middlesbrough
- Aidan Morris CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 45 · Secure passer, Ball-winner (top 8% of his position)
- Amario Cozier-Duberry RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 45 · High shot volume, Crosser (top 12% of his position)
Swansea City
- Zan Vipotnik CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 48 · Chance creator, Takes high-quality shots (top 25% of his position)
- Jenson Seelt CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 47 · Disciplined, Dominant in the air (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Will Lankshear
Will Lankshear, 21 · Middlesbrough · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 50
Will Lankshear, 21, plays as a centre-forward for Middlesbrough in the Championship. Strongest for his role in shots on target and goals, luck taken out. Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 50
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 44
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target | 52% | 85% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.85 / 90 | 84% |
| Expected goals | 0.75 / 90 | 80% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.18 xG/shot | 77% |
| Shots | 4.12 / 90 | 68% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Accurate shooter, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring.
- What Will Lankshear is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Will Lankshear's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Middlesbrough vs Swansea City prediction
Middlesbrough should have more of the ball; Middlesbrough work the ball wide and cross; Swansea City press high to win the ball back. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.92 for Middlesbrough and 1.13 for Swansea City - with over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 58%. Middlesbrough have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Middlesbrough 2-1 Swansea City
Middlesbrough vs Swansea City: what the numbers say
- 1. Middlesbrough win, the likeliest result 55% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 59% by the model, 3.05 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- 4. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.7 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 10.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Championship previews
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- West Ham United vs Preston North End Saturday 21 November 2026
- Swansea City vs West Bromwich Albion Saturday 21 November 2026
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Middlesbrough vs Swansea City: questions and answers
When is Middlesbrough vs Swansea City?
Middlesbrough vs Swansea City is on Tuesday 24 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 17.
Where is Middlesbrough vs Swansea City played?
At Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough, Middlesbrough's home ground.
Who will win Middlesbrough vs Swansea City?
Middlesbrough are the favourites: Middlesbrough 55%, draw 23%, Swansea City 21%. Our prediction is Middlesbrough 2-1 Swansea City.
Who is the player to watch in Middlesbrough vs Swansea City?
Will Lankshear of Middlesbrough: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 50 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Middlesbrough vs Swansea City?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.