Fluminense vs Mirassol Prediction and Stats | Brasileirão Gameweek 36
Brasileirão · Sunday 22 November 2026 · 21:30 UTC · Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Rio de Janeiro · updated 2026-11-13
Fluminense welcome Mirassol to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Rio de Janeiro in Brasileirão Gameweek 36 action on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 21:30 UTC.
Fluminense have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 47% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 17 matches, with a 75% win rate. Mirassol have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 29% of them. Away from home they average 0.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 17 matches, with a 30% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Fluminense are narrow favourites at 56%, with the draw at 23% and Mirassol at 21%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Fluminense 1.94, Mirassol 1.13.
- Over 2.5 goals: 59% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Fluminense: form and key numbers
In style Fluminense keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.39 a match created, 1.40 conceded (goals minus xG: +7.6).
- Shots: 14.7 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 59.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 21% of matches (71% at home).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
Mirassol: form and key numbers
In style Mirassol cross a lot, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.34 a match created, 1.82 conceded (goals minus xG: -6.7).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 49.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 9% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 65% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Fluminense vs Mirassol: season averages side by side
| Fluminense | Per match this season | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.39 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.34 |
| 1.40 | xG conceded | 1.82 |
| 14.7 | Shots | 13.4 |
| 5.6 | On target | 4.3 |
| 59.0 | Possession % | 49.7 |
| 21% | Clean sheets % | 9% |
| 71% | Both teams scored % | 65% |
| 5.4 | Corners | 5.2 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 2.6 |
| 6.92 | Average rating | 6.78 |
Players to watch
Fluminense
- Igor Rabello CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 64 · Hard to dribble past, Blocks shots (top 13% of his position)
- Jefferson Savarino LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 57 · Crosser, Gets into scoring positions (top 6% of his position)
Mirassol
- Nathan Fogaça CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 60 · Gets into scoring positions, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring (top 20% of his position)
- Gabriel CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 57 · Reads the game, Box defender (top 13% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Luciano Acosta
Luciano Acosta, 32 · Fluminense · AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 63
Luciano Acosta, 32, plays as an attacking midfielder for Fluminense in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 63
- ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 48
- LW · Winger Competent, 38
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 3.05 / 90 | 86% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.36 / 90 | 84% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.00 / 90 | 83% |
| Big chances created | 0.55 / 90 | 82% |
| Dispossessed | 0.83 / 90 | 81% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, Dribbler.
- What Luciano Acosta is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Luciano Acosta's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Fluminense vs Mirassol prediction
Fluminense should have more of the ball, with Mirassol likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Fluminense like to take players on; Mirassol work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.94 for Fluminense and 1.13 for Mirassol - with over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 59%. Fluminense have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Fluminense 2-1 Mirassol
Fluminense vs Mirassol: what the numbers say
- 1. Fluminense win, the likeliest result 56% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 59% by the model, 3.07 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 12.1 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 10.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Brasileirão previews
- Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro Saturday 14 November 2026
- Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama Saturday 14 November 2026
- Coritiba vs Santos Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Remo vs Chapecoense Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Flamengo vs Athletico PR Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Grêmio vs Bahia Thursday 19 November 2026
- Corinthians vs Botafogo Thursday 19 November 2026
Fluminense vs Mirassol: questions and answers
When is Fluminense vs Mirassol?
Fluminense vs Mirassol is on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 21:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 36.
Where is Fluminense vs Mirassol played?
At Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Rio de Janeiro, Fluminense's home ground.
Who will win Fluminense vs Mirassol?
Fluminense are the favourites: Fluminense 56%, draw 23%, Mirassol 21%. Our prediction is Fluminense 2-1 Mirassol.
Who is the player to watch in Fluminense vs Mirassol?
Luciano Acosta of Fluminense: a dribbling playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 63 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Fluminense vs Mirassol?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.