Ferencvárosi vs Celje Prediction and Stats | Europa League Gameweek 5
Europa League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Groupama Aréna, Budapest · updated 2026-11-13
Ferencvárosi welcome Celje to Groupama Aréna in Budapest in Europa League Gameweek 5 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Ferencvárosi have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.8 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 100% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. Celje have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Ferencvárosi are narrow favourites at 57%, with the draw at 23% and Celje at 20%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Ferencvárosi 1.96, Celje 1.07.
- Over 2.5 goals: 58% · both teams to score: 57%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Ferencvárosi: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.39 a match created (goals minus xG: +10.4).
- Shots: 11.2 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 46.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 42% of matches (60% at home).
- Both teams scored in 58% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
Celje: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.07 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.7).
- Shots: 8.5 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 48.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
Ferencvárosi vs Celje: season averages side by side
| Ferencvárosi | Per match this season | Celje |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 2.8 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 2.3 |
| 1.39 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.07 |
| 11.2 | Shots | 8.5 |
| 4.3 | On target | 3.8 |
| 46.4 | Possession % | 48.5 |
| 42% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 58% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 5.3 | Corners | 2.3 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.90 | Average rating | 6.80 |
Ferencvárosi vs Celje prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.96 for Ferencvárosi and 1.07 for Celje - with over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 57%. Ferencvárosi have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Ferencvárosi 2-1 Celje
Ferencvárosi vs Celje: what the numbers say
- 1. Ferencvárosi win, the likeliest result 57% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 58% by the model, 3.03 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.9 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 corners or fewer 7.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Ferencvárosi vs Celje: questions and answers
When is Ferencvárosi vs Celje?
Ferencvárosi vs Celje is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 5.
Where is Ferencvárosi vs Celje played?
At Groupama Aréna, Budapest, Ferencvárosi's home ground.
Who will win Ferencvárosi vs Celje?
Ferencvárosi are the favourites: Ferencvárosi 57%, draw 23%, Celje 20%. Our prediction is Ferencvárosi 2-1 Celje.
How many goals will there be in Ferencvárosi vs Celje?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.