FC Barcelona vs Villarreal Prediction and Stats | La Liga Gameweek 13
La Liga · Sunday 22 November 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Spotify Camp Nou, Barcelona · updated 2026-11-13
FC Barcelona welcome Villarreal to Spotify Camp Nou in Barcelona in La Liga Gameweek 13 action on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
FC Barcelona have played 12 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 4.0 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 92% of them. At home they average 4.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 6 matches, with a 45% win rate. Villarreal have played 12 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 6 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, FC Barcelona are clear favourites at 72%, with the draw at 16% and Villarreal at 12%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: FC Barcelona 2.83, Villarreal 1.16.
- Over 2.5 goals: 76% · both teams to score: 65%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
FC Barcelona: form and key numbers
In style FC Barcelona keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 2.97 a match created, 0.97 conceded (goals minus xG: +12.4).
- Shots: 20.1 a match, 7.8 on target.
- Possession: 69.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.17.
Villarreal: form and key numbers
In style Villarreal keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.96 a match created, 1.12 conceded (goals minus xG: -6.6).
- Shots: 16.8 a match, 5.9 on target.
- Possession: 61.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 58% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
FC Barcelona vs Villarreal: season averages side by side
| FC Barcelona | Per match this season | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 4.0 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.1 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 2.97 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.96 |
| 0.97 | xG conceded | 1.12 |
| 20.1 | Shots | 16.8 |
| 7.8 | On target | 5.9 |
| 69.4 | Possession % | 61.8 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 17% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 58% |
| 6.4 | Corners | 7.4 |
| 1.5 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 7.17 | Average rating | 6.88 |
Players to watch
FC Barcelona
- Dani Olmo AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 84 · Creator, Big-chance creator (top 1% of his position)
- Karim Adeyemi RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 76 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 1% of his position)
Villarreal
- Tajon Buchanan RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 70 · Draws fouls, Big-chance creator (top 1% of his position)
- Alberto Moleiro LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 68 · Chance creator, Crosser (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Lamine Yamal
Lamine Yamal, 19 · FC Barcelona · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 91
Lamine Yamal, 19, plays as a winger for FC Barcelona in La Liga. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and shots. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 91
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 86
- RM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 83
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.62 / 90 | 100% |
| Shots | 5.79 / 90 | 100% |
| Big chances created | 1.36 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected goals | 0.68 / 90 | 99% |
| Key passes | 3.80 / 90 | 99% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Creator, High shot volume, Big-chance creator.
- What Lamine Yamal is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Lamine Yamal's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
FC Barcelona vs Villarreal prediction
FC Barcelona should have more of the ball; both like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals - 2.83 for FC Barcelona and 1.16 for Villarreal - with over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams scoring at 65%. FC Barcelona have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: FC Barcelona 3-1 Villarreal
FC Barcelona vs Villarreal: what the numbers say
- 1. FC Barcelona win, the likeliest result 72% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 4 or more goals 56% by the model, 3.99 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 65% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.6 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 13.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More La Liga previews
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- Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia Saturday 21 November 2026
- Sevilla vs Real Betis Saturday 21 November 2026
- Real Madrid vs Celta de Vigo Saturday 21 November 2026
- Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad Sunday 22 November 2026
- Osasuna vs Málaga Sunday 22 November 2026
- Getafe vs Atlético de Madrid Sunday 22 November 2026
FC Barcelona vs Villarreal: questions and answers
When is FC Barcelona vs Villarreal?
FC Barcelona vs Villarreal is on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC, in La Liga Gameweek 13.
Where is FC Barcelona vs Villarreal played?
At Spotify Camp Nou, Barcelona, FC Barcelona's home ground.
Who will win FC Barcelona vs Villarreal?
FC Barcelona are the favourites: FC Barcelona 72%, draw 16%, Villarreal 12%. Our prediction is FC Barcelona 3-1 Villarreal.
Who is the player to watch in FC Barcelona vs Villarreal?
Lamine Yamal of FC Barcelona: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 91 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in FC Barcelona vs Villarreal?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 76%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.