Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro Prediction and Stats | Brasileirão Gameweek 36
Brasileirão · Sunday 22 November 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Arena Condá, Chapecó · updated 2026-11-13
Chapecoense welcome Cruzeiro to Arena Condá in Chapecó in Brasileirão Gameweek 36 action on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
Chapecoense have played 33 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 12% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 16 matches, with a 75% win rate. Cruzeiro have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 53% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 17 matches, with a 44% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Cruzeiro are narrow favourites at 53%, with the draw at 23% and Chapecoense at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Chapecoense 1.34, Cruzeiro 2.01.
- Over 2.5 goals: 65% · both teams to score: 64%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (33 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Chapecoense: form and key numbers
In style Chapecoense are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.08 a match created, 1.90 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.6).
- Shots: 12.4 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 42.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 6% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 64% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Cruzeiro: form and key numbers
In style Cruzeiro keep the ball, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.53 a match created, 1.66 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.1).
- Shots: 15.2 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 54.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 24% of matches (38% away).
- Both teams scored in 68% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro: season averages side by side
| Chapecoense | Per match this season | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 2.1 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.08 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.53 |
| 1.90 | xG conceded | 1.66 |
| 12.4 | Shots | 15.2 |
| 3.5 | On target | 5.4 |
| 42.5 | Possession % | 54.7 |
| 6% | Clean sheets % | 24% |
| 64% | Both teams scored % | 68% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
| 6.73 | Average rating | 6.88 |
Players to watch
Chapecoense
- Rafael Santos GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Shot-stopper, Secure passer (top 16% of his position)
- Matheus Aurélio GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 54 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 16% of his position)
Cruzeiro
- Kaiki LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 57 · Dribbler, Hard to dribble past (top 9% of his position)
- Gabriel Rojas LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 56 · Crosser, Creator (top 19% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Matheus Pereira
Matheus Pereira, 30 · Cruzeiro · AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 60
Matheus Pereira, 30, plays as an attacking midfielder for Cruzeiro in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in fouls won and key passes. Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 60
- RW · Winger Competent, 36
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls won | 3.64 / 90 | 100% |
| Key passes | 3.43 / 90 | 94% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.33 / 90 | 82% |
| Expected goals | 0.34 / 90 | 68% |
| Shots | 2.93 / 90 | 63% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Draws fouls, Chance creator, Creator.
- What Matheus Pereira is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Matheus Pereira's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro prediction
Cruzeiro should have more of the ball, with Chapecoense likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 1.34 for Chapecoense and 2.01 for Cruzeiro - with over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams scoring at 64%. Cruzeiro have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Chapecoense 1-2 Cruzeiro
Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro: what the numbers say
- 1. Cruzeiro unbeaten (win or draw) 75% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 65% by the model, 3.35 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 64% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 9.8 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Brasileirão previews
- Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro Saturday 14 November 2026
- Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama Saturday 14 November 2026
- Coritiba vs Santos Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Remo vs Chapecoense Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Flamengo vs Athletico PR Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Grêmio vs Bahia Thursday 19 November 2026
- Corinthians vs Botafogo Thursday 19 November 2026
Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro: questions and answers
When is Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro?
Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro is on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 36.
Where is Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro played?
At Arena Condá, Chapecó, Chapecoense's home ground.
Who will win Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro?
Cruzeiro are the favourites: Chapecoense 25%, draw 23%, Cruzeiro 53%. Our prediction is Chapecoense 1-2 Cruzeiro.
Who is the player to watch in Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro?
Matheus Pereira of Cruzeiro: a dribbling playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 60 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.