Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers Prediction and Stats | Championship Gameweek 16
Championship · Sunday 22 November 2026 · 12:00 UTC · Turf Moor, Burnley · updated 2026-11-13
Burnley welcome Blackburn Rovers to Turf Moor in Burnley in Championship Gameweek 16 action on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 12:00 UTC.
Burnley have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 7% of them. At home they average 1.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 7 matches, with a 0% win rate. Blackburn Rovers have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 40% of them. Away from home they average 1.1 goals scored and 1.9 conceded over 7 matches, with a 17% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Burnley are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 24% and Blackburn Rovers at 32%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Burnley 1.76, Blackburn Rovers 1.48.
- Over 2.5 goals: 63% · both teams to score: 65%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (15 and 15 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Burnley: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.41 a match created, 1.80 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.9).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 4.1 on target.
- Possession: 47.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 87% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
Blackburn Rovers: form and key numbers
In style Blackburn Rovers play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.05 a match created, 1.83 conceded (goals minus xG: +6.3).
- Shots: 10.9 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 47.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 73% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers: season averages side by side
| Burnley | Per match this season | Blackburn Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Matches | 15 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 2.1 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 1.41 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.05 |
| 1.80 | xG conceded | 1.83 |
| 13.4 | Shots | 10.9 |
| 4.1 | On target | 3.7 |
| 47.8 | Possession % | 47.4 |
| 13% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 87% | Both teams scored % | 73% |
| 4.5 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 6.68 | Average rating | 6.77 |
Players to watch
Burnley
- Lucas Pires LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 41 · Reads the game, Ball-winner (top 16% of his position)
- Jacob Bruun Larsen LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 41 · Big-chance creator, Press-resistant (top 15% of his position)
Blackburn Rovers
- Kristi Montgomery DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 42 · Ball-winner, Press-resistant (top 29% of his position)
- Jayden Fevrier RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 41 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 25% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Sean McLoughlin
Sean McLoughlin, 29 · Blackburn Rovers · CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 42
Sean McLoughlin, 29, plays as a centre-back for Blackburn Rovers in the Championship. Strongest for his role in clearances and blocked shots. Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 42
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Clearances | 8.93 / 90 | 91% |
| Blocked shots | 1.47 / 90 | 86% |
| Interceptions | 2.07 / 90 | 76% |
| Dribbled past | 0.20 / 90 | 71% |
| Long balls | 3.47 / 90 | 64% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★★ Anchor Defensive midfielder
- ★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Box defender, Blocks shots.
- What Sean McLoughlin is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Sean McLoughlin's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers prediction
Burnley should have more of the ball; Blackburn Rovers go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.76 for Burnley and 1.48 for Blackburn Rovers - with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 65%. Burnley have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Burnley 2-1 Blackburn Rovers
Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers: what the numbers say
- 1. Burnley unbeaten (win or draw) 68% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 63% by the model, 3.24 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 65% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.3 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 10.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers: questions and answers
When is Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers?
Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers is on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 12:00 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 16.
Where is Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers played?
At Turf Moor, Burnley, Burnley's home ground.
Who will win Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers?
Burnley are the favourites: Burnley 44%, draw 24%, Blackburn Rovers 32%. Our prediction is Burnley 2-1 Blackburn Rovers.
Who is the player to watch in Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers?
Sean McLoughlin of Blackburn Rovers: a box defender with a Moneyball Score of 42 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.