Burnley vs Birmingham City Prediction and Stats | Championship Gameweek 17
Championship · Wednesday 25 November 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Turf Moor, Burnley · updated 2026-11-13
Burnley welcome Birmingham City to Turf Moor in Burnley in Championship Gameweek 17 action on Wednesday 25 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Burnley have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 7% of them. At home they average 1.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 7 matches, with a 0% win rate. Birmingham City have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 53% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.9 conceded over 7 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Birmingham City are narrow favourites at 53%, with the draw at 23% and Burnley at 24%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Burnley 1.31, Birmingham City 2.03.
- Over 2.5 goals: 65% · both teams to score: 64%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (15 and 15 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Burnley: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.41 a match created, 1.80 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.9).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 4.1 on target.
- Possession: 47.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 87% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
Birmingham City: form and key numbers
In style Birmingham City play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.89 a match created, 1.37 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.3).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 51.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (40% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Burnley vs Birmingham City: season averages side by side
| Burnley | Per match this season | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Matches | 15 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 1.9 |
| 2.1 | Goals conceded | 0.9 |
| 1.41 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.89 |
| 1.80 | xG conceded | 1.37 |
| 13.4 | Shots | 14.3 |
| 4.1 | On target | 5.3 |
| 47.8 | Possession % | 51.2 |
| 13% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 87% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 4.5 | Corners | 5.5 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.68 | Average rating | 6.86 |
Players to watch
Burnley
- Lucas Pires LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 41 · Reads the game, Ball-winner (top 16% of his position)
- Jacob Bruun Larsen LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 41 · Big-chance creator, Press-resistant (top 15% of his position)
Birmingham City
- Christoph Klarer CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 45 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Phil Neumann CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 44 · Dominant in the air, Hard to dribble past (top 23% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Liam Millar
Liam Millar, 27 · Birmingham City · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 47
Liam Millar, 27, plays as a winger for Birmingham City in the Championship. Strongest for his role in big chances created and accurate crosses. Weakest in shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 47
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 44
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances created | 0.68 / 90 | 83% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.46 / 90 | 82% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.33 / 90 | 75% |
| Key passes | 2.25 / 90 | 55% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.02 / 90 | 52% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Big-chance creator, Crosser.
- What Liam Millar is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Liam Millar's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Burnley vs Birmingham City prediction
Birmingham City should have more of the ball; Birmingham City are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.31 for Burnley and 2.03 for Birmingham City - with over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams scoring at 64%. Birmingham City have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Burnley 1-2 Birmingham City
Burnley vs Birmingham City: what the numbers say
- 1. Birmingham City unbeaten (win or draw) 76% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 65% by the model, 3.34 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 64% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.0 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 10.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Championship previews
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- Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Charlton Athletic Saturday 21 November 2026
- West Ham United vs Preston North End Saturday 21 November 2026
- Swansea City vs West Bromwich Albion Saturday 21 November 2026
- Stoke City vs Birmingham City Saturday 21 November 2026
- Sheffield United vs Watford Saturday 21 November 2026
Burnley vs Birmingham City: questions and answers
When is Burnley vs Birmingham City?
Burnley vs Birmingham City is on Wednesday 25 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 17.
Where is Burnley vs Birmingham City played?
At Turf Moor, Burnley, Burnley's home ground.
Who will win Burnley vs Birmingham City?
Birmingham City are the favourites: Burnley 24%, draw 23%, Birmingham City 53%. Our prediction is Burnley 1-2 Birmingham City.
Who is the player to watch in Burnley vs Birmingham City?
Liam Millar of Birmingham City: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 47 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Burnley vs Birmingham City?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.