Botafogo vs São Paulo Prediction and Stats | Brasileirão Gameweek 36
Brasileirão · Monday 23 November 2026 · 23:00 UTC · Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro · updated 2026-11-13
Botafogo welcome São Paulo to Estádio Nilton Santos in Rio de Janeiro in Brasileirão Gameweek 36 action on Monday 23 November 2026, kick-off 23:00 UTC.
Botafogo have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 32% of them. At home they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 17 matches, with a 64% win rate. São Paulo have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 35% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 17 matches, with a 17% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Botafogo 37%, the draw 28%, São Paulo 34%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Botafogo 1.29, São Paulo 1.23.
- Over 2.5 goals: 46% · both teams to score: 52%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Botafogo: form and key numbers
In style Botafogo cross a lot, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.25 a match created, 1.22 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.6).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 5.1 on target.
- Possession: 47.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 18% of matches (83% at home).
- Both teams scored in 65% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
São Paulo: form and key numbers
In style São Paulo keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.45 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: -10.4).
- Shots: 13.7 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 53.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 24% of matches (13% away).
- Both teams scored in 56% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Botafogo vs São Paulo: season averages side by side
| Botafogo | Per match this season | São Paulo |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 1.1 |
| 1.25 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.45 |
| 1.22 | xG conceded | 1.23 |
| 14.3 | Shots | 13.7 |
| 5.1 | On target | 4.2 |
| 47.9 | Possession % | 53.3 |
| 18% | Clean sheets % | 24% |
| 65% | Both teams scored % | 56% |
| 4.7 | Corners | 6.8 |
| 2.6 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.80 | Average rating | 6.84 |
Players to watch
Botafogo
- Kadir Barría CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 63 · High shot volume, Duel winner (top 9% of his position)
- Raul GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 62 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 3% of his position)
São Paulo
- Pedro Lima RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 71 · Hard to dribble past, Reads the game (top 8% of his position)
- Ferreirinha LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 64 · Dribbler, Draws fouls (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Marcos Antônio
Marcos Antônio, 26 · São Paulo · CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 58
Marcos Antônio, 26, plays as a central midfielder for São Paulo in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in pass accuracy and long balls. Weakest in interceptions. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 58
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 50
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 43
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Pass accuracy | 90% | 87% |
| Long balls | 2.97 / 90 | 81% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.20 / 90 | 78% |
| Passes | 65.20 / 90 | 76% |
| Key passes | 1.72 / 90 | 75% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★★★ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
- ★★ Box-to-box midfielder Central midfielder
Scout's notes: Secure passer, Long passer.
- What Marcos Antônio is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Marcos Antônio's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Botafogo vs São Paulo prediction
São Paulo should have more of the ball, with Botafogo likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.29 for Botafogo and 1.23 for São Paulo - with over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams scoring at 52%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Botafogo 1-1 São Paulo
Botafogo vs São Paulo: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 37%
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 54% by the model, 2.52 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 12.9 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 or more corners 11.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Brasileirão previews
- Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro Saturday 14 November 2026
- Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama Saturday 14 November 2026
- Coritiba vs Santos Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Remo vs Chapecoense Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Flamengo vs Athletico PR Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Grêmio vs Bahia Thursday 19 November 2026
- Corinthians vs Botafogo Thursday 19 November 2026
Botafogo vs São Paulo: questions and answers
When is Botafogo vs São Paulo?
Botafogo vs São Paulo is on Monday 23 November 2026, kick-off 23:00 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 36.
Where is Botafogo vs São Paulo played?
At Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro, Botafogo's home ground.
Who will win Botafogo vs São Paulo?
It is close: Botafogo 37%, draw 28%, São Paulo 34%. Our prediction is Botafogo 1-1 São Paulo.
Who is the player to watch in Botafogo vs São Paulo?
Marcos Antônio of São Paulo: a playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 58 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Botafogo vs São Paulo?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.