Bahia vs Coritiba Prediction and Stats | Brasileirão Gameweek 36
Brasileirão · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 20:30 UTC · Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador · updated 2026-11-13
Bahia welcome Coritiba to Arena Fonte Nova in Salvador in Brasileirão Gameweek 36 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 20:30 UTC.
Bahia have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 41% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over 17 matches, with a 57% win rate. Coritiba have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 32% of them. Away from home they average 1.1 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 17 matches, with a 45% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Bahia are narrow favourites at 55%, with the draw at 23% and Coritiba at 22%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Bahia 1.95, Coritiba 1.16.
- Over 2.5 goals: 60% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Bahia: form and key numbers
In style Bahia keep the ball, cross a lot, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.54 a match created, 1.67 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.3).
- Shots: 14.2 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 53.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 26% of matches (56% at home).
- Both teams scored in 65% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Coritiba: form and key numbers
In style Coritiba are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.09 a match created, 1.74 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.8).
- Shots: 11.3 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 40.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 21% of matches (57% away).
- Both teams scored in 47% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.9 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 10.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Bahia vs Coritiba: season averages side by side
| Bahia | Per match this season | Coritiba |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 1.2 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 1.54 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.09 |
| 1.67 | xG conceded | 1.74 |
| 14.2 | Shots | 11.3 |
| 4.7 | On target | 3.4 |
| 53.5 | Possession % | 40.4 |
| 26% | Clean sheets % | 21% |
| 65% | Both teams scored % | 47% |
| 5.7 | Corners | 3.9 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.86 | Average rating | 6.73 |
Players to watch
Bahia
- Ronaldo GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 73 · Box defender, Secure passer (top 11% of his position)
- Léo Vieira GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 60 · Secure passer, Box defender (top 1% of his position)
Coritiba
- Rodrigo Moledo CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 59 · Disciplined, Dominant in the air (top 12% of his position)
- Pedro Morisco GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 53 · Box defender, Shot-stopper (top 14% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Jacy
Jacy, 29 · Coritiba · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 53
Jacy, 29, plays as a centre-back for Coritiba in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in clearances and duels won. Weakest in passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 53
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Clearances | 7.30 / 90 | 85% |
| Duels won | 6.25 / 90 | 83% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.05 / 90 | 80% |
| Tackles | 2.20 / 90 | 80% |
| Blocked shots | 1.12 / 90 | 77% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★★★ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★ Anchor Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Box defender, Duel winner.
- What Jacy is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Bahia vs Coritiba prediction
Bahia should have more of the ball, with Coritiba likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Bahia work the ball wide and cross; Coritiba go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.95 for Bahia and 1.16 for Coritiba - with over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams scoring at 60%. Bahia have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Bahia 2-1 Coritiba
Bahia vs Coritiba: what the numbers say
- 1. Bahia win, the likeliest result 55% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 60% by the model, 3.11 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 16.1 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Brasileirão previews
- Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro Saturday 14 November 2026
- Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama Saturday 14 November 2026
- Coritiba vs Santos Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Remo vs Chapecoense Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Flamengo vs Athletico PR Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Grêmio vs Bahia Thursday 19 November 2026
- Corinthians vs Botafogo Thursday 19 November 2026
Bahia vs Coritiba: questions and answers
When is Bahia vs Coritiba?
Bahia vs Coritiba is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 20:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 36.
Where is Bahia vs Coritiba played?
At Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador, Bahia's home ground.
Who will win Bahia vs Coritiba?
Bahia are the favourites: Bahia 55%, draw 23%, Coritiba 22%. Our prediction is Bahia 2-1 Coritiba.
Who is the player to watch in Bahia vs Coritiba?
Jacy of Coritiba: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 53 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Bahia vs Coritiba?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.