Atlético Mineiro vs Corinthians Prediction and Stats | Brasileirão Gameweek 36
Brasileirão · Wednesday 25 November 2026 · 23:00 UTC · Arena MRV · updated 2026-11-13
Atlético Mineiro welcome Corinthians to Arena MRV in Brasileirão Gameweek 36 action on Wednesday 25 November 2026, kick-off 23:00 UTC.
Atlético Mineiro have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 41% of them. At home they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over 17 matches, with a 71% win rate. Corinthians have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 26% of them. Away from home they average 1.1 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 17 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Atlético Mineiro are narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 29% and Corinthians at 24%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Atlético Mineiro 1.41, Corinthians 0.94.
- Over 2.5 goals: 42% · both teams to score: 47%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Atlético Mineiro: form and key numbers
In style Atlético Mineiro play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.34 a match created, 1.35 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.5).
- Shots: 13.8 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 49.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 24% of matches (63% at home).
- Both teams scored in 47% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Corinthians: form and key numbers
In style Corinthians keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.04 a match created, 1.35 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.6).
- Shots: 13.6 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 54.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 35% of matches (42% away).
- Both teams scored in 56% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match, 6.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Atlético Mineiro vs Corinthians: season averages side by side
| Atlético Mineiro | Per match this season | Corinthians |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 1.34 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.04 |
| 1.35 | xG conceded | 1.35 |
| 13.8 | Shots | 13.6 |
| 4.7 | On target | 4.0 |
| 49.4 | Possession % | 54.0 |
| 24% | Clean sheets % | 35% |
| 47% | Both teams scored % | 56% |
| 5.2 | Corners | 5.2 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 2.8 |
| 6.86 | Average rating | 6.84 |
Players to watch
Atlético Mineiro
- Fred CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 64 · Creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 3% of his position)
- Léo Duarte CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 57 · Blocks shots, Disciplined (top 17% of his position)
Corinthians
- Fabrizio Angileri LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 58 · Chance creator, Crosser (top 11% of his position)
- Kauê GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 51 · Shot-stopper, Secure passer (top 26% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Tomás Cuello
Tomás Cuello, 26 · Atlético Mineiro · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 55
Tomás Cuello, 26, plays as a winger for Atlético Mineiro in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in big chances created and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 55
- RW · Winger Natural, 55
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 52
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances created | 0.43 / 90 | 70% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.25 / 90 | 65% |
| Fouls won | 1.88 / 90 | 62% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.92 / 90 | 58% |
| Shots | 2.74 / 90 | 57% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- What Tomás Cuello is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Tomás Cuello's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Atlético Mineiro vs Corinthians prediction
Corinthians should have more of the ball, with Atlético Mineiro likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Atlético Mineiro go long and direct; Corinthians work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals - 1.41 for Atlético Mineiro and 0.94 for Corinthians - with over 2.5 goals at 42% and both teams scoring at 47%. Atlético Mineiro have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Atlético Mineiro 2-0 Corinthians
Atlético Mineiro vs Corinthians: what the numbers say
- 1. Atlético Mineiro unbeaten (win or draw) 76% between them
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 58% by the model, 2.34 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 14.5 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 10.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Brasileirão previews
- Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro Saturday 14 November 2026
- Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama Saturday 14 November 2026
- Coritiba vs Santos Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Remo vs Chapecoense Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Flamengo vs Athletico PR Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Grêmio vs Bahia Thursday 19 November 2026
- Corinthians vs Botafogo Thursday 19 November 2026
Atlético Mineiro vs Corinthians: questions and answers
When is Atlético Mineiro vs Corinthians?
Atlético Mineiro vs Corinthians is on Wednesday 25 November 2026, kick-off 23:00 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 36.
Where is Atlético Mineiro vs Corinthians played?
At Arena MRV, Atlético Mineiro's home ground.
Who will win Atlético Mineiro vs Corinthians?
Atlético Mineiro are the favourites: Atlético Mineiro 47%, draw 29%, Corinthians 24%. Our prediction is Atlético Mineiro 2-0 Corinthians.
Who is the player to watch in Atlético Mineiro vs Corinthians?
Tomás Cuello of Atlético Mineiro: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 55 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Atlético Mineiro vs Corinthians?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 42%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.