Atlético de Madrid vs Viking Prediction and Stats | Champions League Gameweek 5
Champions League · Wednesday 25 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid · updated 2026-11-13
Atlético de Madrid welcome Viking to Riyadh Air Metropolitano in Madrid in Champions League Gameweek 5 action on Wednesday 25 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Atlético de Madrid have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. Viking have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 2.5 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Atlético de Madrid are clear favourites at 72%, with the draw at 17% and Viking at 11%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Atlético de Madrid 2.57, Viking 0.95.
- Over 2.5 goals: 68% · both teams to score: 57%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Atlético de Madrid: form and key numbers
In style Atlético de Madrid keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 0.88 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.5).
- Shots: 9.8 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 50.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 0.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
Viking: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.36 a match created (goals minus xG: +5.8).
- Shots: 11.2 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 41.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
Atlético de Madrid vs Viking: season averages side by side
| Atlético de Madrid | Per match this season | Viking |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 2.3 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 2.5 |
| 0.88 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.36 |
| 9.8 | Shots | 11.2 |
| 3.8 | On target | 5.0 |
| 50.3 | Possession % | 41.0 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 3.8 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 0.8 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
| 6.76 | Average rating | 6.79 |
Players to watch
Atlético de Madrid
- Morten Hjulmand DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 76 · Secure passer, Hard to dribble past (top 12% of his position)
- Pablo Barrios CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 75 · Dribbler, Ball circulator (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Alejandro Grimaldo
Alejandro Grimaldo, 31 · Atlético de Madrid · LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 61
Alejandro Grimaldo, 31, plays as a wing-back for Atlético de Madrid in La Liga. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and expected goals. Weakest in dribbled past. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 61
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 61
- LM · Wide midfielder Natural, 61
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 1.05 / 90 | 92% |
| Expected goals | 0.22 / 90 | 87% |
| Tackles | 2.30 / 90 | 67% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.14 / 90 | 65% |
| Key passes | 0.96 / 90 | 56% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Complete wing-back Wing-back
Scout's notes: Crosser, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Alejandro Grimaldo is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Alejandro Grimaldo's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Atlético de Madrid vs Viking prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 2.57 for Atlético de Madrid and 0.95 for Viking - with over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams scoring at 57%. Atlético de Madrid have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Atlético de Madrid 3-1 Viking
Atlético de Madrid vs Viking: what the numbers say
- 1. Atlético de Madrid win, the likeliest result 72% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 68% by the model, 3.52 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- 4. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.9 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Atlético de Madrid vs Viking: questions and answers
When is Atlético de Madrid vs Viking?
Atlético de Madrid vs Viking is on Wednesday 25 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 5.
Where is Atlético de Madrid vs Viking played?
At Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid, Atlético de Madrid's home ground.
Who will win Atlético de Madrid vs Viking?
Atlético de Madrid are the favourites: Atlético de Madrid 72%, draw 17%, Viking 11%. Our prediction is Atlético de Madrid 3-1 Viking.
Who is the player to watch in Atlético de Madrid vs Viking?
Alejandro Grimaldo of Atlético de Madrid: a complete wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Atlético de Madrid vs Viking?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.